Coalition necessary to ensure stable government

Coalition necessary to ensure stable government

Sayidiman Suryohadiprojo, Former Governor, National Resilience Institute

(Lemhanas), Jakarta

Whoever is elected as Indonesia's president for the next five
years needs to build an effective coalition of political parties
to establish a stable government. The incumbent President
Megawati Soekarnoputri has appealed to her party, the Indonesian
Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), to win up to 85 percent of
the votes in the legislative election on April 5. That would
enable PDI-P to establish an absolute majority in the
legislature.

At the same time, it would greatly strengthen her position as
a presidential aspirant. She predicted that there would be no
runoff in September, because she would win the first stage of the
presidential election on July 5, with more than 50 percent of the
votes.

Indonesia would certainly benefit if these predictions were
accurate, because there would be an absolute majority and no need
to form a coalition. Moreover, if the presidential election could
be limited to one stage, the cost of the elections would be
reduced. The elected president could also be viewed as "more
legitimate " -- an important contribution to the stability of the
new government.

However, President Megawati seems to be overestimating the
people's support of her party. Simply put, 50 percent (let alone
85 percent) is an unrealistic figure, particularly if one looks
at the different surveys conducted by various organizations. We
cannot avoid the likelihood that no political party will be able
to garner 50 percent of the votes (or more).

The strongest parties, like PDI-P and the Golkar Party, should
be happy with even 40 percent of the votes. Parties such as Amien
Rais' National Mandate Party (PAN), former president Abdurraham
Wahid's National Awakening Party (PKB) and Vice President Hamzah
Haz' United Development Party (PPP), may achieve around 15
percent to 20 percent of the votes.

However, there is no direct connection between the election of
the legislature and the presidential election. The president will
be directly elected by the people. Therefore a winning party
cannot claim that its candidate is most likely to become
president.

In other words, all presidential candidates have the same
chance in entering the first stage of the presidential election.

Thus, should a runoff be required, the "number one" (with the
largest number of votes) and the number two would fight it out in
September. Obviously, there would be no guarantee that the winner
of the first stage would be victorious in the second stage.

If necessary, the new president would need to ensure that a
coalition among political parties would establish a stable
government.

This is not an easy job, especially if the elected president
does not have a strong political party behind them. This could
happen with candidates like Amien Rais, and more so Susilo
Bambang Yudhoyono, whose party, the Democratic Party, is new and
thus, must prove its ability to win seats.

But the fact is that Amien and Susilo are no less popular than
Megawati, Hamzah Haz, or Akbar Tandjung -- as Golkar's leader and
speaker of the House of Representatives (DPR).

If Megawati or Golkar's presidential candidate (which has not
been announced pending the Golkar convention) should win the
presidential election, the job of building a coalition would be
much easier.

As the leader of a "strong" party, any one of them would have
less difficulty attracting other parties to form a coalition. The
main objective would be to create a coalition of more than 75
percent of elected members.

In addition, the coalition would have to take into account
issues, such as the controversy over the implementation of
regional autonomy. It is not impossible that a PDI-P president
would try to have Golkar and PKB, or PAN in its government. The
same would hold for a Golkar president. Such a government could
enjoy the support of more than 75 percent of the members of DPR.

But if Amien Rais or Susilo were president, how would they
build their coalition? Amien, as the former chairman of
Muhammadiyah, might appeal to Golkar to join his coalition,
considering that many Golkar leaders -- as former members of the
Muslim Student Association (HMI) -- have close relations with
Muhammadiyah.

Although there are PDI-P leaders with backgrounds in
Muhammadiyah, it is not probable that PDI-P would join a
coalition led by Amien Rais. It is also far from sure that
Abdurrahman Wahid's PKB would be satisfied with such an
arrangement. There is a possibility that the invitation could be
extended to other Islamic parties, such as the Prosperous Justice
Party (PKS), United Development Party (PPP) and Crescent Star
Party (PBB).

The problem here is that these three parties use sharia
(Islamic law) as their guiding principle, while Amien Rais's PAN
has stated its loyalty to Pancasila.

It is interesting to note that if Susilo became president, his
Democratic Party would be too small to attract other parties to
form up a coalition. Rather, it would be Susilo, as an
individual, that would attract them. Considering his bad
experience with PDI-P, or rather with Megawati and her husband,
during his last days in the present government, would he approach
this party for a coalition?

It is more probable that he would approach Golkar, which a
number of his old friends are members of. The selection of vice
president would also be a very important consideration. To
accommodate Muslims, and regional sentiments, he might consider
the leader of a Muslim organization from outside Java as his vice
president. A man like Syafii Maarif, the chairman of Muhammadiyah
-- who is also from Sumatra -- could be a logical choice.

In that case, PAN with its many Muhammadiyah members, could be
part of his coalition. Looking at his close relations with PKB
and the Indonesian Justice and Unity Party (PKPI) (the party of
(ret) General Eddy Sudradjat), it is not impossible that these
parties would be willing to support Susilo's government.

What the people would like to see is a government that is
strong enough to improve the economy. Only with a strong economy
can the people hope for a better life, higher employment figures,
higher earnings and better education and health services. A
stable government would also have other advantages, such as the
capability to deal with separatism, to prevent and defeat
terrorism, to strengthen ASEAN, and many other things.

It would certainly benefit the people if the coalition could
last longer than five years, so that Indonesia would have more
possibilities to develop -- like Malaysia with its Barisan
Nasional that has lasted for more than a decade. Without an
effective coalition, there is no hope for a stable government,
and consequently no possibility of prosperity. Indonesia would
remain backward, and would need to be prepared for the
possibility of worse to come.