Coalition necessary to ensure stable government

Sayidiman Suryohadiprojo, Former Governor, National Resilience Institute
(Lemhanas), Jakarta

Whoever is elected as Indonesia's president for the next five years needs to build an effective coalition of political parties to establish a stable government. The incumbent President Megawati Soekarnoputri has appealed to her party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), to win up to 85 percent of the votes in the legislative election on April 5. That would enable PDI-P to establish an absolute majority in the legislature.

At the same time, it would greatly strengthen her position as a presidential aspirant. She predicted that there would be no runoff in September, because she would win the first stage of the presidential election on July 5, with more than 50 percent of the votes.

Indonesia would certainly benefit if these predictions were accurate, because there would be an absolute majority and no need to form a coalition. Moreover, if the presidential election could be limited to one stage, the cost of the elections would be reduced. The elected president could also be viewed as "more legitimate " -- an important contribution to the stability of the new government.

However, President Megawati seems to be overestimating the people's support of her party. Simply put, 50 percent (let alone 85 percent) is an unrealistic figure, particularly if one looks at the different surveys conducted by various organizations. We cannot avoid the likelihood that no political party will be able to garner 50 percent of the votes (or more).

The strongest parties, like PDI-P and the Golkar Party, should be happy with even 40 percent of the votes. Parties such as Amien Rais' National Mandate Party (PAN), former president Abdurraham Wahid's National Awakening Party (PKB) and Vice President Hamzah Haz' United Development Party (PPP), may achieve around 15 percent to 20 percent of the votes.

However, there is no direct connection between the election of the legislature and the presidential election. The president will be directly elected by the people. Therefore a winning party cannot claim that its candidate is most likely to become president.

In other words, all presidential candidates have the same chance in entering the first stage of the presidential election.

Thus, should a runoff be required, the "number one" (with the largest number of votes) and the number two would fight it out in September. Obviously, there would be no guarantee that the winner of the first stage would be victorious in the second stage.

If necessary, the new president would need to ensure that a coalition among political parties would establish a stable government.

This is not an easy job, especially if the elected president does not have a strong political party behind them. This could happen with candidates like Amien Rais, and more so Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, whose party, the Democratic Party, is new and thus, must prove its ability to win seats.

But the fact is that Amien and Susilo are no less popular than Megawati, Hamzah Haz, or Akbar Tandjung -- as Golkar's leader and speaker of the House of Representatives (DPR).

If Megawati or Golkar's presidential candidate (which has not been announced pending the Golkar convention) should win the presidential election, the job of building a coalition would be much easier.

As the leader of a "strong" party, any one of them would have less difficulty attracting other parties to form a coalition. The main objective would be to create a coalition of more than 75 percent of elected members.

In addition, the coalition would have to take into account issues, such as the controversy over the implementation of regional autonomy. It is not impossible that a PDI-P president would try to have Golkar and PKB, or PAN in its government. The same would hold for a Golkar president. Such a government could enjoy the support of more than 75 percent of the members of DPR.

But if Amien Rais or Susilo were president, how would they build their coalition? Amien, as the former chairman of Muhammadiyah, might appeal to Golkar to join his coalition, considering that many Golkar leaders -- as former members of the Muslim Student Association (HMI) -- have close relations with Muhammadiyah.

Although there are PDI-P leaders with backgrounds in Muhammadiyah, it is not probable that PDI-P would join a coalition led by Amien Rais. It is also far from sure that Abdurrahman Wahid's PKB would be satisfied with such an arrangement. There is a possibility that the invitation could be extended to other Islamic parties, such as the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), United Development Party (PPP) and Crescent Star Party (PBB).

The problem here is that these three parties use sharia (Islamic law) as their guiding principle, while Amien Rais's PAN has stated its loyalty to Pancasila.

It is interesting to note that if Susilo became president, his Democratic Party would be too small to attract other parties to form up a coalition. Rather, it would be Susilo, as an individual, that would attract them. Considering his bad experience with PDI-P, or rather with Megawati and her husband, during his last days in the present government, would he approach this party for a coalition?

It is more probable that he would approach Golkar, which a number of his old friends are members of. The selection of vice president would also be a very important consideration. To accommodate Muslims, and regional sentiments, he might consider the leader of a Muslim organization from outside Java as his vice president. A man like Syafii Maarif, the chairman of Muhammadiyah -- who is also from Sumatra -- could be a logical choice.

In that case, PAN with its many Muhammadiyah members, could be part of his coalition. Looking at his close relations with PKB and the Indonesian Justice and Unity Party (PKPI) (the party of (ret) General Eddy Sudradjat), it is not impossible that these parties would be willing to support Susilo's government.

What the people would like to see is a government that is strong enough to improve the economy. Only with a strong economy can the people hope for a better life, higher employment figures, higher earnings and better education and health services. A stable government would also have other advantages, such as the capability to deal with separatism, to prevent and defeat terrorism, to strengthen ASEAN, and many other things.

It would certainly benefit the people if the coalition could last longer than five years, so that Indonesia would have more possibilities to develop -- like Malaysia with its Barisan Nasional that has lasted for more than a decade. Without an effective coalition, there is no hope for a stable government, and consequently no possibility of prosperity. Indonesia would remain backward, and would need to be prepared for the possibility of worse to come.