Coal to Crude Palm Oil Export Scheme via State-Owned Enterprises Risks Margin Pressure for Issuers

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - The government policy mandating the export of strategic commodities through state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is seen as potentially pressuring margins for coal, crude palm oil (CPO), and ferro-alloys issuers in the short term. The policy arose after President Prabowo Subianto announced the issuance of a Government Regulation on the Governance of Exports of Natural Resource Commodities (SDA). Under the regulation, export sales must be conducted through SOEs designated by the government as the sole exporters. The three commodities that will be the initial phase of the policy are palm oil, coal, and ferro-alloys. “Finanacially, the downside risks could arise from a lower average selling price (ASP), foreign exchange losses due to transactions with SOEs expected to be settled in rupiah, and the counterparty service charges levied by Danantara, all of which could squeeze the margins of exporting companies,” said Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia analysts Juan Harahap and Fadhlan Banny in their research, Thursday (21/5/2026). In addition to margin risk, Samuel Sekuritas also sees potential longer wait times due to an added layer of bureaucracy in the export process. In Phase I, which runs from June to August 2026, private exporters can still carry out part of the pre- and post-customs processes, but export-import contracts with foreign buyers must be channelled through SOEs. Meanwhile in Phase II from September 2026, SOEs will be the sole contracting counterpart for all foreign buyers. In light of potential pressures, firms with greater domestic exposure are deemed more resilient to changes in the export scheme. Samuel Sekuritas cites PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) with 50 per cent domestic exposure, PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) 38 per cent, PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY) 38 per cent, NSSS 100 per cent, and BWPT 100 per cent as potentially more robust than other issuers reliant on export markets.