Coal Prices Strengthen as China Steps Up Imports
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Newcastle coal prices strengthened throughout this week. In trading on Friday (21/8/2026), the price closed at US$138.25 per tonne, up US$4.65 or 3.48% compared with the previous week’s close of US$133.60.
Coal began the week with a 0.34% rise to US$134.05 on Monday. The price then strengthened 0.15% to US$134.25 on Tuesday and added 0.37% to US$134.75 on Wednesday.
The gains accelerated over the final two days. The price rose 1.11% to US$136.25 on Thursday, then jumped 1.47% to close Friday at US$138.25.
Coal thus recorded gains in five consecutive trading days. The highest close was US$138.25 and the lowest US$134.05, yielding a range of US$4.20 or about 3.14%.
China: Imports Rising Again
Chinese demand has been one of the main supports for coal prices. China’s coal imports in July 2026 reached 42.73 million tonnes, up nearly 20% compared with the same period last year.
Shipments from Indonesia to China also increased by about 20% year on year. The rise in imports came after China’s domestic production was disrupted by closures and inspections at a number of mines.
Power plant consumption in southern China has also increased since late July. Meanwhile, domestic production has not been fully able to keep pace with demand, prompting buyers to turn again to imported coal.
However, high rainfall and increased hydroelectric output could still limit coal consumption. Chinese demand remains sensitive to changes in temperature and weather.
Indonesia: Varied HBA, Export Supply Potentially Tight
The Indonesian government has set the Coal Reference Price (HBA) for the second period of August 2026, with differing movements for each coal grade. High-calorific-value coal edged lower, while medium- and low-calorific-value coal recorded increases.
The largest increase occurred in 5,300 GAR coal, which strengthened by 3.91%. This was a positive sentiment because medium- and low-calorific-value coal dominate Indonesia’s exports, particularly to China and Southeast Asian countries.
Another sentiment came from the strengthening of the Domestic Market Obligation (DMO). The government has assigned mining companies to supply around 212 million tonnes of coal to meet PLN’s needs, which are estimated to reach 154 million tonnes in 2026.
The policy helps secure domestic electricity supply but could reduce the volume available for the export market. Export supply could also tighten after the government cut the production quota compared with the previous year.
The government’s plan to strengthen oversight and centralise export transactions for strategic commodities has also drawn attention. The policy transition process could increase uncertainty over coal contracts and shipments.
India: High Production Restrains Imports
Sentiment from India remains somewhat negative for the global coal market. India’s coal production in July 2026 reached 69.75 million tonnes, up 7.51% year on year.
Total stockpiles at power plants, mines, and distribution lines reached about 148 million tonnes. That amount is estimated to be sufficient to meet around 62 days of power plant consumption.
India’s non-coking coal imports during January-July 2026 were also still down about 11% compared with the previous year. Ample domestic supply means India has not needed to increase purchases from the international market aggressively.
This could limit gains in Newcastle prices, especially if demand from China begins to slow.
Technical Trend Increasingly Bullish
From a technical perspective, the price is moving above the five-day average close of US$135.51, the 10-day average of US$134.72, and the 20-day average of US$133.46.
This arrangement indicates short-term bullish momentum. The 14-day RSI is around 64.84, indicating reasonably strong buying pressure but not yet entering overbought territory.
Friday’s closing price was also the highest since mid-June. However, the US$139.40-US$139.70 area could act as strong resistance because it has previously served as a reversal point on several occasions.