Coal Prices Split into Two Tiers, Some Soar While Others Slump
Coal prices fell for a fourth consecutive day despite a flood of positive news. Refinitiv data showed coal prices closed at US$128.25 per ton on Monday (6/7/2026), down 0.58%. This extended a 0.93% decline over the four-day losing streak. Prices weakened even as the market split, with coking coal prices surging while thermal coal slumped.
Total coal shipments for all purposes from Gladstone Port in Queensland, north-eastern Australia, reached 6.36 million tonnes in June 2026, the highest monthly volume in the first half of the year, according to data from Gladstone Ports Corporation (GPC). Coking coal accounted for roughly 70% of the total flow through Gladstone Port, making it a key export route for coal mined in central Queensland. June shipments jumped 41% compared to May and rose 13.6% year-on-year.
Shipments from Gladstone Port to Japan surged 46% month-on-month and 27% year-on-year to 2.24 million tonnes, the highest volume since November 2022. Meanwhile, Australian coal exports to China via the port soared 71% month-on-month and 5.5% year-on-year to 576,221 tonnes, also a record high for the year. Chinese buyer interest in Australian coal spiked in early June after a sudden domestic coking coal supply shortage triggered a price surge. Many mines in China were ordered to halt operations for safety inspections from late May, following a fatal underground mine explosion in Shanxi province.
Exports to India reached 1.16 million tonnes in June, up 11.5% month-on-month but down 26% year-on-year. Shipments to South Korea fell 10.4% month-on-month to 1.29 million tonnes, though they were still 52% higher than the same period last year. Overall, total coal exports through Gladstone Port reached 33.27 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, a 10.5% increase from the first half of the previous year.
The Super El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to drive a surge in coal-fired electricity demand in India over the next 12 months, according to a report by the Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). The report notes that El Niño, typically associated with lower wind speeds and reduced rainfall, will likely suppress wind and hydropower generation in India, creating a supply gap that will probably be filled by increased coal-fired generation. Analysts estimate the potential generation shortfall could reach nearly 18 terawatt-hours (TWh), with the most likely scenario being a surge in coal-fired power generation releasing around 17 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions.
As the world’s second-largest coal importer and consumer after China, India remains heavily reliant on coal despite rapid renewable energy expansion. Coal still accounts for about 60% of national electricity production. Rajnath Ram, an energy adviser at Indian government policy think tank NITI Aayog, stated late last year that coal would remain a crucial part of India’s electricity system for the next two decades. “We cannot be subjective about coal. The question is how we can use it more sustainably,” he said.
Meanwhile, coal arrivals by rail at major ports in northern China fell 18.63% on 6 July 2026 compared to the previous day. The decline in rail deliveries indicates reduced shipments from key mining regions such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia to domestic export ports. If rail arrivals continue to lag behind ship loading rates, port coal stocks could decline, a condition that typically supports domestic Chinese coal prices, provided demand from power plants does not remain sluggish.