Coal Prices Skyrocket: Six Consecutive Days of Gains Push Prices to US$147

Coal prices have soared to their highest position in two months. Rising oil prices and supply issues have sustained the rally.

According to Refinitiv, coal prices on Tuesday (1/9/2026) climbed to US$147.75 per tonne, representing a 2.6% increase. This surge brings coal prices to their highest level since 11 June 2026, or more than two months ago. The price hike also extends a rally that has seen coal strengthen by 6.8% over six consecutive days.

The surge in coal prices is partly supported by oil prices. The strengthening is also driven by high global energy demand amidst ongoing supply concerns. Brent crude oil closed up 4.6% to US$94.65 per barrel, while WTI rose 0.6% to US$90.77 per barrel during Tuesday’s trading. In two days, both WTI and Brent oil prices jumped by 6%. As oil and coal are substitute commodities, their prices influence one another.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that coal will remain the world’s largest source of electricity generation, with production reaching nearly 11,000 TWh in 2026. The surge in electricity demand is also slowing efforts to replace coal with renewable energy. The IEA estimates that coal will remain the primary source of power generation until 2030, as no alternative energy source is yet capable of replacing it on the same scale.

Prolonged conflict in the Middle East is also strengthening the coal demand outlook by tightening global LNG supplies and driving up energy prices. In India, 45 power plants are reported to have very low coal stocks. This situation occurs as electricity demand rises amidst a strong El Niño, while coal supplies are disrupted by monsoon rains.

Coal production by Coal India Limited fell 5.7% year-on-year to 45.7 million tonnes (MT) in August 2026, down from 50.4 million tonnes in the same period last year. However, coal supply actually rose 5.5% to 60.6 million tonnes. Cumulatively for April-August 2026, Coal India’s production fell 4.5% to 267.5 million tonnes, while supply increased 6.7% to 322.9 million tonnes.

Coal remains India’s primary source of electricity. Coal and lignite-based plants contributed 69.54% of the electricity supplied to India during the April-June 2026 period. Despite the decline in production, the Indian Ministry of Coal stated that supplies for the power sector remain sufficient. As of 4 August, approximately 148 million tonnes of coal were available in power plants, mines, and in transit, enough to meet requirements for about 62 days.

Indonesian coal exports recorded an increase in value throughout January-July 2026, even though shipment volumes to the global market actually declined. India’s imports of coal and coke fell in July 2026, alongside weakening imports of thermal coal and petcoke. Total imports reached approximately 20.14 million tonnes (MMT), down 8.54% year-on-year and 9.90% compared to June.

However, coking coal imports moved in the opposite direction. Volume rose by about 14.65% month-on-month to 6.07 million tonnes in July, although it remains down about 1.28% annually. Meanwhile, thermal coal imports fell to 11.43 million tonnes. Petcoke imports also plummeted sharply to around 551,000 tonnes, the lowest level in 53 months.

Other data shows that India’s coking coal imports increased from approximately 5.34 million tonnes in June to 6.07 million tonnes in July, a month-on-month increase of 13.8%. This increase primarily originated from Australia, with shipments from the country surging 19.7% to 3.78 million tonnes. The rise in coking coal imports occurred amidst limited domestic supply. India’s coking coal production for April-June 2026 was recorded at 13.32 million tonnes, a 10.18% year-on-year decrease, leaving the steel industry increasingly dependent on imported supplies.

Decline in Indonesia’s Export Volume

According to data from the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), the value of coal exports rose by 4.75% to US$14.47 billion during January-July 2026, up from US$13.81 billion in the same period the previous year. However, this increase in value was contrary to export volumes. Indonesian coal shipments fell by 6.17% to 201.47 million tonnes, down from 214.71 million tonnes.