Coal Prices Rise Slightly as India-China Sentiments Clash
Coal prices strengthened amidst clashing negative sentiments from China and positive signals from India. According to Refinitiv, coal prices closed at US$ 143.5 per tonne on Thursday (24/09/2026), marking a 0.56% increase.
This strengthening comes as good news after prices fell by 0.9% on Wednesday. Negative sentiment stems from China, where thermal coal trading activity at North Chinese ports has slowed ahead of the upcoming holidays. Market participants are choosing to hold transactions and wait for demand direction following the break.
The import market is now relying on potential restocking after the holidays to support demand. However, high domestic stocks and limited demand remain factors that could restrain price gains. Thermal coal trading at North Chinese ports has slowed due to quiet market activity during the holiday period.
The price and competitiveness of imported coal, including from Indonesia, are likely to be key factors under observation. If power plants resume large-scale purchases after the holidays, the import market could receive support. Conversely, if domestic stocks remain high and electricity consumption does not increase significantly, price recovery could be hindered.
A number of mines in China’s main production centres have also begun lowering prices, though movements are not uniform. Demand from power plants and end-users has not been strong enough to support further price increases. Ahead of the holidays, some buyers engaged in restocking, but purchasing remains selective as consumers reject excessively high prices. On the supply side, production oversight policies and restrictions on mines exceeding quotas remain supporting factors for prices.
From India, reports indicate that coal is expected to contribute approximately 50% of power generation until 2035-2036, even as the country continues to accelerate renewable energy development. India’s Ministry of Electricity stated that the surge in electricity demand necessitates thermal power plants to maintain the security, affordability, and reliability of the power supply.
India’s coal-fired power plant capacity currently stands at approximately 224 GW and is targeted to increase to 315 GW by 2035-2036. Around 50 GW of coal plant capacity is currently under construction, while another 15 GW has been approved but has not yet entered the construction phase. India also still needs to award contracts for an additional 10-11 GW of capacity. In addition to power generation, India is also beginning to develop coal gasification to produce hydrocarbons and reduce dependence on imports.