Coal Prices Remain Resilient: Signs of an Imminent Surge?

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Coal prices have moved steadily with a slight upward tendency throughout the past week. The increase occurred from the start of the week, then stabilised towards the close.

According to Refinitiv, on Friday (1/5/2026), coal prices stood at US$137.6 per tonne. This position was almost unchanged from Thursday at US$137.75 and Wednesday at US$137.8. Looking back to the start of the week, prices rose from US$134.1 on Monday (27/4). Over the week, the increase was around 2.5%.

This movement follows changes in the global energy market. Supply risks for oil and LNG remain high amid conflicts in the Middle East. Major shipping routes have not fully recovered. The energy risk premium remains intact, keeping coal prices at high levels.

On the demand side, Asia is the main pillar. Japan has increased the use of coal-fired power plants following LNG supply disruptions. Japan’s thermal coal imports in March reached 9.95 million tonnes, up 5% from the previous year. The government is encouraging coal power plants to maintain electricity supply.

South Korea has taken similar steps. Restrictions on coal use have been relaxed to ensure energy stability. China is acting from the production side, increasing domestic output and accelerating coal-to-gas conversion projects to reduce import dependency.

This sustained demand keeps prices above US$130 per tonne, although still below the March peak of US$146.5. Since the conflict began in early March, coal prices have risen by about 9%.

However, pressure is emerging from the industrial side. Chinese steel producers are starting to hold back on expansion. Baosteel is re-evaluating investments in Saudi Arabia after rising logistics costs and increased regional uncertainty. The company also reported a quarterly profit decline due to higher raw material costs.

On the supply side, global production is not yet fully stable. Several mines in Australia have recorded output declines due to weather and operational disruptions. Coronado Group’s production fell by more than 20% quarterly, while Anglo American also noted an annual production drop.

Looking ahead, price direction will still depend on global energy conditions. If oil and LNG flows return to normal, pressure on coal could emerge. In the longer term, increases in renewable energy capacity are beginning to reduce additional coal needs in several countries.