Coal Prices Remain High: Which Issuers are Benefiting the Most?

Coal mining stocks are once again attracting market attention. A combination of rising commodity prices, improving demand in Asia, and growing profits in the first half of 2026 has created positive sentiment for the sector.

Out of 14 monitored coal issuers, 12 stocks recorded gains over the last three months. PT MNC Energy Investments Tbk (IATA), PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk (SMMT), and PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI) were the three stocks with the largest gains. However, one-month movements suggest the market is becoming more selective. PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) experienced a sharp correction, while PT Adaro Minerals Indonesia Tbk (ADMR) and PT Prima Andalan Mandiri Tbk (MCOL) have yet to follow the rally seen in the majority of coal stocks.

SMMT and AADI have emerged as the two stocks with the most consistent momentum, recording significant increases in both one-month and three-month periods. IATA continues to lead on a three-month basis but has begun to enter a period of consolidation. Meanwhile, BYAN remains an anomaly, having risen 20.4% over three months despite dropping 24.7% within a single month.

Coal prices have risen by 9%. This strengthening of the sector aligns with the upward trend in coal prices, which increased from US$134.05 per tonne on 17 August to US$146.10 per tonne on 16 September 2026. On Friday (4/9/2026), coal prices even closed at US$153 per tonne, a record high since 18 December 2023. This surge extended the coal rally, jumping 10.5% in just eight days. Although prices have since corrected about 4.5% from their peak, they remain up approximately 9% over one month and 7-8% over three months. These relatively high price levels offer opportunities for improved average selling prices, though the benefits will vary by company depending on coal quality, sales contracts, production costs, and shipping expenses.

Coal demand remains high. In its latest Coal Mid-Year Update 2026, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that energy market disruptions caused by conflicts in the Middle East would drive higher global coal demand this year. This projection is good news for Indonesia as the world’s largest exporter of thermal coal and for the many Indonesian companies engaged in coal exports. Global coal demand is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2026, reversing previous projections of a slight annual decline. With this growth, global coal consumption is expected to reach a record 8.94 billion tonnes in 2026.

Regarding production, the IEA expects global coal production to decline in 2026 after reaching a record high in 2025. Nevertheless, global production is expected to remain above 9 billion tonnes for the third consecutive year. The decline is primarily occurring in China, the world’s largest coal producer, where production has been pressured following a major mining accident in May that triggered safety inspections across various mines.

China has the potential to increase imports. China remains a key factor in determining the direction of the Asian coal market. Increasingly strict mine safety inspections could potentially constrain domestic production in the short term. Simultaneously, demand for coal from power plants and industry remains high. If production does not return to normal and inventories decline, Chinese companies may increase coal imports. Indonesia stands to benefit due to its closer shipping distance compared to other major exporters, though the scale of imports will still be influenced by Chinese government policy, port inventories, and the recovery of domestic production.

India also requires more electricity. Positive sentiment is also coming from India, where heatwaves have increased electricity usage for cooling, while economic growth is driving energy consumption in both the household and industrial sectors. The risks of El Niño and decreased hydropower production could force coal-fired power plants to operate at higher capacities to maintain the electricity supply. While India continues to increase its domestic coal production, imports are still necessary when electricity demand rises faster than supply or when the quality of local coal does not meet the needs of power plants and industry. The rising demand in China and India has the potential to support export volumes for Indonesian coal companies.

Domestic production in Indonesia is being limited. The Indonesian government has set a coal production target of approximately 600 million tonnes for 2026, which is lower than the 2025 realisation of approximately 817.48 million tonnes. Production from January to July 2026 has reached 423.71 million tonnes. If the target is maintained, the remaining production space for August to December is approximately 176.29 million tonnes. Controlling production could help reduce oversupply and support prices, but such a policy could also limit the sales volumes of companies. Additionally, dry weather and falling river levels in the Kalimantan region are concerns, as they could hinder coal transportation via river routes.

US policies under Trump could impact coal. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced on Monday that it will no longer regulate emissions that cause global warming from coal and natural gas-fired power plants. The EPA estimates that coal production for the electricity sector could increase more than tenfold due to this policy change, serving as a highly positive catalyst for US thermal coal. The removal of power plant emission regulations by the Trump administration could provide a breath of fresh air for the US coal industry, as power plants will face lower regulatory pressure and lower emission reduction costs, giving plants that were previously threatened with retirement a chance to continue operating.