Coal Prices Finally Fall After Five-Day Rally

Coal prices weakened after rising for five consecutive days.

Based on Refinitiv data, coal closed at US$151.6 per tonne on Wednesday (7 October 2026), down 0.88%.

The decline ended a five-day winning streak that had delivered a total gain of 4.5%.

One factor behind the fall was softer oil prices. On Wednesday, US crude (WTI) dropped 1.3% to US$88.28 per barrel, while Brent closed at US$100.20 per barrel, down 0.4%. Oil and coal are substitute commodities, so their prices tend to move in tandem.

Coal prices fell despite supply concerns in India.

Coal inventories at India’s power plants continue to dwindle and are approaching their lowest level in five years. This raises the risk of power cuts amid still-high energy demand.

As of 4 October 2026, 69 power plants, or more than two-fifths of India’s coal-fired fleet, held only four days’ supply or less. This is the lowest figure since December 2021.

The stock decline has been driven by a combination of hot weather, heavy rain that has hampered mining activity, and rail disruptions that have slowed coal deliveries to power plants.

India is steadily expanding its renewable energy capacity, but coal still accounts for nearly 70% of its electricity generation.

Cooler weather through to February offers India an opportunity to replenish stocks before the summer season. If mine output and distribution do not improve soon, the risk of electricity disruptions could increase.

Meanwhile, thermal coal prices at China’s mine mouths have been mixed.

Some producers have raised prices as stocks run low and sales remain relatively steady, while demand from traders has begun to weaken as stockpiling ahead of the holiday nears completion.

According to Sxcoal, coal stocks at 160 surveyed mines reached 4.01 million tonnes as of 30 September 2026. This was up 0.22% week on week but still down 4.68% from the same period last year.

Average mine capacity utilisation stood at 87.94%, down 0.5 percentage points over the week.