CIMB Niaga Reveals 3 Scenarios for IHSG 2026, Highest Reaching 8,000

PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk (BNGA) sees room for the Indonesian stock market to strengthen through the end of 2026.

Based on consensus from a number of investment managers working with the company, the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) is projected to be in the range of 7,000–8,000 this year.

WM Business Development & Market Research Head of CIMB Niaga Lanjar Nafi Taulat Ibrahimsyah said there are three scenarios for IHSG movement in 2026, namely a bull case, a base case, and a bear case.

In the most optimistic or bull case scenario, the IHSG is projected to reach the 8,000 level. Meanwhile, in the base case scenario, the IHSG is estimated to be around 7,500.

In the most conservative or bear case scenario, the IHSG is projected to be at the 7,000 level.

“At least if we look at this, from the most conservative at 7,000, it means there is still upside potential for Indonesian stocks,” Lanjar said during the Inspirational Journalism Class at the Ritz Carlton Pacific Place on Wednesday (26/8/2026).

According to Lanjar, the projection shows that although the stock market still faces a number of pressures, the opportunity for IHSG strengthening remains open.

One factor of concern for investors is the direction of Bank Indonesia (BI) interest rates. CIMB Niaga itself holds a conservative view, estimating that the BI Rate still has the potential to rise once more this year.

Lanjar said domestic economic conditions are currently in a phase of tightening as well as slowing. This is reflected in rising interest rates and economic growth that is expected to slow slightly.

However, after the potential increase, the room for BI to raise interest rates again is considered increasingly limited.

“Which means interest rates are starting to approach their peak,” he said.

Interest rate conditions are one factor investors need to consider in determining investment strategy in the stock market. High interest rates have the potential to increase companies’ cost of funds and ultimately depress share valuations.

“For stocks, we need to be selective. Because the trend of rising interest rates has the potential to increase the cost of funds for issuers,” Lanjar said.

According to him, issuers that need funding for expansion will face higher capital costs when interest rates are at high levels. The funding can come from bank loans or bond issuance.

“If interest rates are high, what will issuers face? The cost of obtaining fresh funds will be expensive, and that will make the valuation of the shares somewhat less attractive,” he explained.

Therefore, Lanjar advised investors not only to look at stocks that have corrected, but also to pay attention to company fundamentals and financial structure.

“Perhaps at the moment it is good that many stocks have corrected, but it is hoped that big caps, or those with debt ratios that are not too large relative to assets,” he concluded.