Ciller's plan faces problems in parliament

Ciller's plan faces problems in parliament

By Suna Erdem

ANKARA (Reuter): Turkish Prime Minister Tansu Ciller is back
at square one this week in her bid to democratize the country's
constitution after a conservative alliance in parliament sniped
relentlessly at her every proposal.

But analysts and diplomats say Ankara's customs unions deal
with Europe is in the balance unless the government can show, and
soon, concrete progress in making Turkey more democratic.

Ciller froze debate on a series of constitutional changes last
Thursday after parliament voted down an amendment to give public
sector workers union rights. She said it was to allow a new
consensus to form but gave no time for debate to resume.

Last Thursday's vote was just the last straw -- progress on
all other measures had also been painstakingly slow, despite an
initial cross-party consensus to reform the constitution drawn up
in 1982 by Turkey's generals, then in power.

"This was the one thing the European Parliament was expecting
Turkey would manage," a Western diplomat said.

"Ciller has to have something to show...There were three
options -- the release of the DEP MPs, article 8, and this. This
looked to be the easiest," he added.

The other possible measures the diplomat referred to were the
release of six former Turkish MPs who were jailed last year for
supporting Kurdish rights, and an article in the constitution
which hinders freedom of expression and has been responsible for
jailing scores of writers and intellectuals.

European Union negotiators struck a customs deal with Turkey
earlier this year that would give Ankara full access to European
markets and is a significant stepping stone to EU membership.

But the European Parliament has still to ratify the deal and
has made it clear it wants to see Turkey show, by action rather
than words, it is committed to full liberal democracy.

In fact, the constitutional debate designed to achieve that
has ended up throwing that commitment into question.

"It seems (local) political expediency came out tops against
the advantages offered by the constitutional changes," Sedat
Ergin, a columnist at Hurriyet daily, told Reuters.

On freezing the parliamentary debate, Ciller launched a bitter
attack on opposition Motherland Party (ANAP) leader Mesut Yilmaz,
whom she accuses of jumping ship after pledging support.

From voting on other amendments in the package, it was clear
ANAP deputies -- and some from Ciller's own True Path party (DYP)
-- had joined the Islamist Welfare party (RP) in blocking
measures in a powerful conservative block

Ciller also faced some pressure from the other side, her
liberal junior coalition partners the Republican People's Party
(CHP), who occasionally tried to block measures they felt did not
go far enough.

It was not clear where Ciller would go from here.

Some parliamentary analysts saw last Thursday's freezing as a
tactic to scare dissenters into supporting her, but others now
see little chance of the changes being completed.

"This is one of the worst constitutions in the world,"
political columnist Mehmet Ali Birand said. "But I don't think
there will be a consensus on it now...It has become mired in the
bog of domestic politics."

He said Ciller would have to focus now on the narrower goal of
scrapping article 8, although some analysts say this is tougher
than the process which has just broken down.

"Article 8 has become a matter of honor...It represents those
tied to the old system versus the new," Birand said.

Early general elections are another option, although Ciller
insists her coalition with the CHP will not split up.

ANAP is now calling for fresh elections, not due until October
1996, and the two coalition partners in the government regularly
bicker.

Turkey's stock market plummeted recently when CHP ministers
failed to turn up to a cabinet meeting, and grassroots supporters
in the party accuse its leadership of being bullied by Ciller's
party into compromising social democratic values.

Birand said Ciller would walk an election.

"In this environment, with the economy apparently improving
and the fight against terror looking successful to the public,
Ciller would probably walk a general election," Birand said.

At least one European diplomat was in no doubt as to what she
should do if she did go to the polls and win.

"She would have to do something concrete straight afterwards,"
the diplomat said. "The times are past when the EU is going to be
impressed by a show of strength."