Chinese Intelligence Suspects Mossad Involvement in Ceuta Migration Crisis
BEIJING views the migration crisis affecting the Spanish autonomous city of Ceuta not merely as a border issue, but through a lens of geopolitics and hybrid warfare. A theory has emerged among Chinese academic and intelligence circles that the large wave of migrants was part of an intelligence operation driven by Morocco and Israel to destabilise Spain.
Egyptian political expert and specialist in Chinese politics and Sino-Israeli relations, Nadia Helmy, presented this thesis in an article for Modern Diplomacy. Helmy argues that reports from Beijing interpret the events in Ceuta as a hybrid warfare operation aimed at increasing pressure on the government of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. In this interpretation, Mossad, Israel’s intelligence service, is suspected of involvement due to an interest in promoting a destabilisation campaign against Spain.
Analysis from Chinese intelligence centres highlights the escalation of diplomatic tensions between Madrid and Tel Aviv. The deterioration of bilateral relations, triggered by the Spanish government’s strong criticism of the situation in the Gaza Strip and its recognition of a Palestinian state, is considered a motive for Mossad to exacerbate the migration crisis between Morocco and Spain.
A diplomat noted that since the normalisation of relations in 2020, Morocco and Israel have strengthened their defence and intelligence cooperation. This theory has also garnered support from outside China, including from Colombian President Gustavo Petro, who publicly accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of being responsible for the crisis in Ceuta as a form of pressure against governments questioning his Middle East policies.
Beyond the migration dimension, Beijing sees the crisis from a broader geostrategic perspective. Ceuta is considered a pawn on the western Mediterranean chessboard, a region where essential maritime routes, port infrastructure, and a significant Chinese economic presence converge.
Although Spain is an important partner for China within the European Union, Morocco is a key strategic partner for Beijing in Africa. Over the past five years, economic relations between Rabat and Beijing have strengthened significantly through major infrastructure projects. Morocco is now positioned as China’s main gateway to African and European markets.
For Beijing, Morocco plays a role similar to Vietnam in Asia, serving as an industrial platform to supply Western markets while circumventing trade barriers that affect direct exports from China. Billions of dollars in Chinese investment are flowing into the electric vehicle components and battery sectors in Morocco, leveraging the country’s abundant phosphate reserves and its strategic location just 14 kilometres from Europe.
The involvement of Chinese state-owned enterprises in railway, energy, and port projects—particularly the Tanger Med port—makes Morocco’s stability crucial for China’s supply chains. Therefore, any crisis erupting in Ceuta or northern Morocco will be assessed in depth by Beijing regarding its impact on their growing strategic economic interests.