China-Taiwan -- small step, not a leap

China-Taiwan -- small step, not a leap

SINGAPORE: There was much drum-beating going on in Taiwan over
the formal opening on Tuesday of trade and transport links
between two outlying islands, Kinmen and Matsu, and Fujian on the
Chinese mainland. An official party led by the Kinmen county
commissioner will board a boat for the port city of Xiamen, a
journey delayed 24 hours by the New Year holiday.

The event is being milked by the Taiwanese side for all the
goodwill (or propaganda) it is worth. On a broad historical
scale, the Taiwanese are well justified to count this as a big
deal in improving liaison with China.

Taiwan's ban on direct contact has stood for 51 years since
China became the People's Republic, and the island prospered as
an irksome satellite to the mainland. If Taiwan President Chen
Shui-bian is not thwarted by hardliners in his own Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP), he intends to liberalize further by
having Chinese journalists and tourists over. He will also ease
investment controls on Taiwanese firms doing business on the
mainland.

There is nothing puny about these promised developments,
considering he had been far too cautious after his election in
March last year, studying his moves in pursuing an opening to
China.

But on the broad canvas of China's complete territorial
restoration, the cross-straits foray is nothing like the
"breakthrough" Taiwan is billing it as. Beijing's grudging
acceptance of the offer should be absorbed by Taipei for its full
meaning. The limited links were originally China's idea, which it
proposed at the first round of cross-straits talks held in
Singapore in 1993.

Taiwan was opposed to the links at the time, as China's
refusal to renounce the use of force against it contradicted its
time-table for an accommodation with the mainland, as set out in
its Guidelines for National Unification. The Beijing position on
military force has not changed.

So, is this a case of Taiwan doing an about-turn to indulge
Beijing, or China being maneuvered into a position not to its
liking? China's stand has been that "mini-links" do not amount to
anything. It stands ready to open full links in trade, air and
sea movements, and postal exchange, provided Taiwan accepts the
principle of one China as a basis for resumed talks. This is the
nub of the issue. In this context, it is unprofitable to deduce
who had whom over a barrel in the case of the limited opening.

It helps to keep in mind that trading and travel movements
between the Taiwanese islands and Fujian port cities had been
going on informally since the 1980s. The much touted "opening"
only makes legal what had just been tolerated all these years.

The bottom line remains unchanged: Until Chen can get over his
semantic ambiguity about China as one, he will receive no quarter
from Beijing. The opening to Fujian gives him some elbow room in
his jostling with DPP fundamentalists, such as his vice-president
Annette Lu, to give China a reason to engage him. He should grab
the opportunity.

Two fortuitous factors could hold him back, however. The
coming accession of George Bush to the United States presidency
will embolden hardliners in Taipei, as the outlines of the
Bushites' China policy appear to provide Taiwan succor while
being unhelpfully tough on China. Secondly, setbacks in political
and public service administration, culminating in a poorly
performing economy and charges of presidential naivete, have been
a distraction. Chen would be inclined to play for time, but he
does not have all the time in the world.

-- The Straits Time/Asia News Network