China set to extend reach with ASEAN meeting

China set to extend reach with ASEAN meeting

Lindsay Beck, Reuters/Beijing

It may be criticized as little more than a talking shop, but participation in the ASEAN Regional Forum this week will be a chance for China to assert its influence with its neighbors to the south.

After decades of suspicion toward multilateral organizations, analysts say China's leaders have realized participation can be a tool to stamp its footprint on the region -- and to check that of the United States and Japan.

"It's the realization that if you are proactive you are actually able to shape the ... agenda much better than if you are simply reactive," said Jurgen Haacke, a Southeast Asia specialist at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

With China feeling encircled by U.S. troops in Central Asia, its security alliance with Japan and by Washington's commitment to defend Taiwan, it is eager to stake out a role in Southeast Asia.

And with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice a no-show at the annual gathering and the participation of Japanese Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura still a question mark, Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing will have just the chance at the Laos meeting to play the great power role China is seeking.

But analysts say he will be careful to play that part in a way that doesn't threaten countries in the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc, whose collective population of 600 million is dwarfed by China's 1.3 billion.

"China is part of the ASEAN process, but in a way which gives maximum face to the original ASEAN players. It goes out of its way to allay the fears ASEAN may have toward China," said a Beijing-based diplomat. "China is a giant by comparison."

For China, the game is not only about influence, but trade.

Trade between China and ASEAN reached more than US$100 billion last year, up 30 percent from 2003. The two are working toward a free trade area, with China after energy and natural resources to feed its economic boom and Southeast Asia happy to have a willing buyer.

"ASEAN countries are concerned about China's increasing competitiveness, but they are also aware of it as a great opportunity," said Sheng Lijun, convener of the ASEAN-China Study Program based in Singapore.

With stability in the region and friendly relations key to accessing its oil and gas reserves, Beijing has signed a raft of friendship treaties and non-aggression pacts with its countries over the past few years.

In March, state oil firms in China, the Philippines and Vietnam signed a deal for a joint marine study in the South China Sea, including the disputed Spratly Islands, that the three hope will provide a model for oil development in the area.

Security in the Malacca Strait is also a perennial issue at the regional forum, with almost all oil imports to China and Japan passing through the narrow sea lane.

But if economic cooperation seems like a win-win scenario, analysts say the countries of ASEAN are still wary of the prospect of an elephant the size of China running roughshod in its backyard.

"Although China is becoming more friendly than before, ASEAN countries still need a balancing power in the region," said Samuel Ku, a visiting research fellow at Singapore's East Asia Institute.

"The United States is still showing up to balance China's development in this area," he said.