China not an imminent threat to regional security
China not an imminent threat to regional security
Beijing shows that it recognizes concerns about regional stability and about China itself.
By Soedibyo
China is not necessarily viewed as an imminent threat to regional security and stability. But Beijing's clear aspirations to join the first rank of nations in economic and military terms, supported by progress in economic development and military modernization, make China a cause for regional concern.
The recent publication of a White Paper on Arms Control and Disarmament reflects Beijing's desire for countries in the Asia- Pacific region to understand China's position on arms control and disarmament. This is very encouraging, as it shows that Beijing recognizes how concerned countries in the region are about regional stability and about China itself.
The White Paper touches on issues relevant to "Confidence and Security Building Measures". These include promoting peace and development; the reduction of military personnel by one million men; maintaining a low level of defense spending; using military industrial technologies for peaceful uses; controlling the transfer of sensitive materials and military equipment; and actively promoting international arms control and disarmament. If one expects specific answers to issues of major regional concern, one will be disappointed with the White Paper.
It is stated that China's national defense policy is defensive in nature. Its basic goals are to consolidate national defense, resist foreign aggression, defend the nation's sovereignty over its territory, territorial waters and airspace as well as its maritime rights and interests, and safeguard national unity and security. The lack of symmetry in military power in the Asia- Pacific makes the notion of what is "defensive", when attached to a large country, completely meaningless to a small country.
A Chinese official did not deny the assertion that China's one million troop reduction was not really one million. In actual numbers, the reduction was only 700,000 men, and most of those troops were transferred to paramilitary units. In any case, the "reduction" of troops is a consequence of force modernization: manpower intensive forces will be transformed into technologically intensive forces which is intended to augment, not reduce, military capabilities.
In relation to the percentage of GDP spent on defense, this can be a very misleading indicator of military capabilities. In a country with an economy that has grown at a rate of 8 percent a year, a constant percentage of GDP spent on defense actually means an increase in defense spending. There are also problems of methodology in terms of making comparisons between defense budgets. Whatever one may say on defense spending, one thing is quite clear, the military capabilities of the PLA are increasing.
The reasons why China's defense industries have been looking for new and different production tasks is another issue of concern. Some answers can be found in an article entitled, The National Defense Industries Should Take the Road of Integrating the Military and the Civil (Sectors) written by Huang Qiuyen. The reason the system needs to be reformed, as Huang argues, is that the primary characteristics and advantages of the defense industries, are their vast pools of technically qualified personnel, vast resources and large production capability, which were previously substantially underutilized. An immense gap had developed between the defense industries and civilian industries.
The solution, according to Huang, is in adopting a "dual- production structure". This means closing, suspending and merging some defense factories; eliminating departmental, regional and provincial defense industry offices to bring about dual- production structures, and encouraging defense industries to become involved in civil production through the use of taxation. The motive for these reforms is primarily to achieve economies.
With regard to the transfer of military equipment and related technology, China respects the right of every country to self- defense aimed at safeguarding national security in accordance with the relevant principles contained in Charter of the United Nations. But at the same time, China is very concerned about the adverse effects on international and regional stability arising out of any excessive accumulation of weaponry. Beijing insists that it does not use the trade in weaponry to interfere in the internal affairs of sovereign states. This stand is related to the justification of China's weapons acquisitions for defensive purposes but at the same time is intended to criticize Western countries who are ready to sell significant military equipment to Taiwan which, from the Chinese point of view, constitutes interference in China's domestic affairs.
To be realistic, insofar as there are regional implications in China's White Paper, they turn not so much on arms control and disarmament, but on enhanced dialog, the promotion of functional cooperation, and on confidence and security building measures. The rhetoric in the White Paper appears to be intended to draw the attention of major powers and developed countries who can influence the regional balance by direct "intervention" or by providing technology and major military hardware, and to make these countries think about their actions as they might affect regional security.
Brigadier General (Ret.) Soedibyo is a Senior Fellow at the Institute for Strategic Studies of Indonesia (ISSI).