China missile tests seen as a warning to Taiwan

China missile tests seen as a warning to Taiwan

By Kevin Chen

TAIPEI (Reuter): China's planned missile tests near Taiwan are
intended to push this island's "panic buttons" and force it into
abandoning a drive for greater international recognition,
analysts in Taiwan and China said on Wednesday.

They added that the tests signaled Beijing's patience with
what it perceives as Taiwan's increasingly individualist stance
might have finally run out.

"China is trying to push the panic buttons of the Taiwanese
people to force Taiwan leaders into choosing either a move
towards or away from China," said Andrew Yang, secretary-general
of the private Council of Advanced Policy Studies.

In an early sign of fear, Taiwan's stock market index lost
4.23 percent on Wednesday and fell to its lowest level in 19
months.

"This is a definite turning point," Yang said of the tests,
which are due to run for a week from Friday. The tests are being
conducted about 140 km (85 miles) off Taiwan's northern coast.

China and Taiwan, which split after a civil war in 1949, both
claim to be parts of one China that will one day reunify.

But radical differences exist over how reunification should be
achieved. China maintains Taiwan is a rebel province and should
return by submitting to Beijing's authority, much like the
British colony Hong Kong will do in 1997.

Taiwan's government, however, wants to be seen as more of an
equal and has recently been trying to expand international ties
to bolster its standing in its rivalry with China.

"China wants Taiwan to stop pursuing foreign relations so
aggressively," said Ben Lee, senior analyst at the Taiwan branch
of Nomura Securities.

The strain in relations, now at their lowest point since a
thaw began in the early 1980s, started in June after Beijing
protests over a landmark trip to the United States by Taiwan
President Lee Teng-hui.

Lee's private visit to his alma mater Cornell University in
Ithaca, New York, enraged China, which insists Taiwan's
government is not entitled to international relations.

It retaliated by indefinitely postponing high-level talks
which had been scheduled for July to discuss legal guarantees for
Taiwan's investments in China.

But instead of showing contrition, Taiwan added to China's
anger by unveiling a plan to gain a seat at the United Nations by
offering US$1 billion in donations for developing nations.

It further inflamed Beijing by sending Premier Lien Chan to
Europe, establishing diplomatic ties with Gambia, in Africa, and
repeatedly calling for China to recognize Taiwan as a "political
entity" separate from Beijing.

"The more the Taiwanese government ignores previous warnings,
the more the Chinese government will escalate the warnings. Now,
the warning is at a high point," Nomura's Lee said.

"China wants (Taiwan's ruling) Nationalist Party to make clear
that it does not support any form of two-China or Taiwan
independence policies," Lee added.

In Beijing, political analysts said that China is aiming to
scare the Taiwanese people and force President Lee and the rest
of the government into a political retreat.

"(China) wants to spread nervousness among the business
community in Taiwan, because this will put pressure on Lee Teng-
hui to ease off on raising Taiwan's international profile," one
analyst said.