China Builds 'Ice Silk Road', Will the Suez Canal Be Abandoned?

China has begun opening a new shipping route across the Arctic to Europe, called the ‘Ice Silk Road’, amid disruptions to several strategic sea lanes in the Middle East. The route is touted as being able to cut shipping times, but it also brings new geopolitical risks.

The route is operated by Chinese shipping company Sea Legend, running from Ningbo on China’s east coast, through the Arctic Circle via Russia’s Northern Sea Route (NSR), then on to the North Sea and Felixstowe in the United Kingdom.

The company previously conducted a trial in October and recorded a transit time of around 20 days, far shorter than the Suez Canal route of around 40 days and the route via the Cape of Good Hope of around 50 days.

Sea Legend Chief Operating Officer Li Xiaobin said the Arctic route is suitable for transporting goods that are sensitive to temperature and require fast delivery times.

‘This new route is very suitable for cargo that is sensitive to heat and has strict deadlines, such as lithium-ion batteries and photovoltaic products,’ he said.

However, the Ice Silk Road cannot yet become a permanent replacement for the Suez Canal. The route is highly dependent on ice conditions in the Arctic and can mainly be used when summer makes the waters easier to navigate.

‘This route depends on when the ice melts, which adds uncertainty,’ said Dylan Loh, associate professor of Public Policy and Global Affairs at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. According to him, the Arctic route is more appropriately viewed as a seasonal complement to the main shipping lanes.

Melting ice is indeed making access to the Arctic increasingly open. A study by University of Southampton researchers published in July stated that Arctic sea ice extent at the peak of winter in February-March 2024-2025 fell by 5.8%, the largest decline ever recorded in that period.

On the other hand, geopolitical issues pose a major challenge. The Ice Silk Road passes through the NSR, which is controlled by Russia, while shipping permits are issued by the Northern Sea Route Administration under Rosatom.

William Yang, senior analyst for Northeast Asia at the International Crisis Group, assessed that China is one of the most realistic countries in utilising the route as an alternative to strategic routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal.

‘However, given that Russia controls shipping through the NSR, use of the route could also pose political risks for other countries,’ Yang said. He assessed that increased Chinese activity in the NSR could simultaneously strengthen Beijing’s foothold in the Arctic region.

The need for alternative routes has grown after disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb threatened global trade. The Strait of Hormuz is the main export route for oil and LNG from the Gulf region, while Bab al-Mandeb is the gateway to the Red Sea connected to the Suez Canal. Disruptions at both points have prompted shipping companies to seek safer routes that are less dependent on traditional chokepoints.

Nevertheless, Dylan Loh assessed that the Ice Silk Road is more of an anticipatory strategy by China than a direct replacement for traditional routes. ‘This Chinese route is more of an anticipatory measure, not a total shift or a true alternative for now,’ he said.

Alejandro Reyes, adjunct professor at the University of Hong Kong, even assessed that routine shipping activity could bring a new economic dimension to China’s presence in the Arctic while also intensifying Beijing-Moscow competition with the United States and its allies.