Chillies Become Scarce, Sending Prices Soaring

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – Chilli prices have surged because of supply shortages caused by lower production.

The average retail price of bird’s eye chillies reached Rp81,341 per kilogram in September 2026, exceeding the Rp63,068 price for red chillies. A year earlier, bird’s eye chillies were still cheaper than red chillies.

According to data from the Institute for Economic and Social Research at the Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI), the greatest retail price pressure was on red bird’s eye chillies, which rose 84.53% year on year in September 2026. This was followed by green bird’s eye chillies, up 48.09%; curly red chillies, up 17.29%; and large red chillies, up 10.64%.

The increase in bird’s eye chilli prices was also evident month on month. The average retail price of red bird’s eye chillies rose 39.33% from August to Rp92,505 per kilogram, while green bird’s eye chillies climbed 18.26% to Rp65,966 per kilogram.

“Supply disruptions due to limited water amid El Niño conditions are one factor that could explain the sharp rise in the prices of bird’s eye and red chillies,” LPEM FEB UI said in its report, cited on Tuesday (20 October 2026).

Prolonged dry weather and hot conditions have reduced harvests, while additional supplies from new plantings will take time to reach the market. The supply-side disruption is reflected in chilli price increases at every level, particularly for red bird’s eye chillies: retail, wholesale and producer prices.

In September 2026, the average producer price of red bird’s eye chillies reached Rp55,139 per kilogram, up 49.58% year on year. The wholesale price rose even more sharply, by 91.14% to Rp75,743 per kilogram, while the retail price increased 84.53% to Rp92,505 per kilogram.

Compared with August 2026, increases were also greater at wholesale and retail level, at 45.04% and 39.33% respectively, than at producer level, where the rise was 24.98%.

“These changes reaffirm that price pressures are reaching every level of trade, including producers,” the report said.

Regionally, retail prices for red bird’s eye chillies rose year on year in all 30 provinces surveyed, although prices paid by consumers varied widely. The September 2026 average reached Rp140,468 per kilogram in Gorontalo and Rp140,270 in North Sulawesi, compared with Rp56,234 in North Sumatra and Rp64,470 in East Java.

The largest retail price increase for red bird’s eye chillies was recorded in South Sulawesi, where prices rose 189.40% to Rp79,605 per kilogram, still below the national average.

Price increases for commodities depend heavily on supply availability and location, which determine the distance between markets and production centres.

“Given the substantial price disparities in volatile food commodities, price controls should also take distribution and the equalisation of supply into account, so that the burden of price increases is not concentrated in areas located far from production centres.”