Chen leading Taiwan to disaster: China

Chen leading Taiwan to disaster: China

Jeremy Page and Benjamin Kang Lim, Reuters, Beijing/Taipei

China told Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian on Monday he was leading the island to disaster by backing a referendum on independence, as Taipei tried to contain the fallout from his boldest statement since taking power.

A Beijing spokesman said Chen proved he was determined to seek independence for an island China sees as a rebel province and has threatened to attack if it declares statehood.

"We seriously warn Taiwan splittist forces not to wrongly judge the situation, to immediately stop the horse at the edge of the precipice and to stop all splittist activities," said Li Weiyi, spokesman for the cabinet's Taiwan Affairs Office.

Beijing had been trying to avoid a spat with Taiwan in the sensitive run-up to a leadership change later in the year, but Chen appears to be taking advantage of the reshuffle and strong U.S. support to steal ground on the issue, analysts said.

In his strongest comments on it since taking office in 2000, Chen said on Saturday that holding a referendum was a "basic human right" and in reality there was "one country on each side" of the Taiwan Strait.

Taiwan's top policymaker on China sought to play down Chen's remarks, saying they did not signal a change of policy and were aimed at safeguarding the current position.

"Do not over-interpret" Chen's comments, said Tsai Ing-wen, head of the cabinet's Mainland Affairs Council.

"We do not want the independence and sovereignty we enjoy now to be destroyed or changed," she told a news conference hours before leaving for the United States with Premier Yu Shyi-kun.

Tsai said she would reassure U.S. officials -- who said there was no change in Washington's adherence to a "one China" policy -- that there had been no shift in Taipei's stance.

A Taiwan military spokesman said there were no abnormal troop movements on the mainland, but Taiwan's stock market plunged almost 6 percent to an eight-month low over fears of a crisis in cross-Strait ties.

Taiwan businessmen have sunk up to US$100 billion into China since relations began thawing in the late 1980s and they are now ignoring appeals from Chen to invest elsewhere.

China advocates peaceful reunification on the "one country, two systems" deal given to the former European colonies of Hong Kong Kong and Macau, but refuses to renounce the use of force.

That threat was repeated only last week as China celebrated the 75th anniversary of the People's Liberation Army (PLA).

However, military analysts say the PLA will not have the air and sea power to overwhelm an island heavily armed with superior weaponry until somewhere between 2005 and 2010.

Analysts say Taiwan is keen to steal ground while it has the military advantage and the strong backing of the U.S. administration of President George W. Bush, who has said he will do "whatever it takes" to help Taiwan defend itself.

Chen also appears to be using the distraction of the leadership transition in Beijing to reinforce Taiwan's standing with key allies like the United States, some analysts say.

"There is a sense that Chen is taking advantage of the paralysis in decision making that surrounds the leadership transition," said one Western diplomat.

"Chen's seeing how far he can push the envelope while still being able to claim he has said nothing new."

When Chen took office in May 2000, he extended an olive branch to Beijing by promising not to declare statehood or push for an independence referendum, but on condition China abandon invasion threats.