Chaotic World, Indonesia's Recession Risk Only 5%

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The Indonesian government claims that the country’s economy is increasingly resilient, even as global economic activity faces pressure from conflicts in the Middle East, which are also disrupting global trade routes, particularly energy in the Strait of Hormuz. Coordinating Minister for the Economy Airlangga Hartarto said that various international institutions have even informed him that the probability of Indonesia facing a recession due to the spillover of global economic pressures is only 5%. “The probability of recession in Indonesia is under 5%, below countries like the US, Canada, and Japan,” Airlangga said at the Kick Off Pinisi event at Bank Indonesia, Jakarta, on Monday (27/4/2026). He also assured that domestic economic activities continue to run smoothly and will be able to maintain rapid growth momentum. As is known, the government targets Indonesia’s economic growth rate at 5.4% this year. “Even though the war is not yet over, Indonesia still has strong resilience and high room to grow,” Airlangga emphasised.