Chaos and coups

Chaos and coups

The warning from the Indonesian Defense Minister that the armed forces might seize power if the present disturbances continued should act as a wake up call to President Abdurrahman Wahid and the country's elected politicians. Defense Minister Mahfud Mahmoddin made a pointed reference to politicians failing to lead the country as a condition that could trigger a military response. The other was chaos and anarchy leading to the break up of Indonesia. One of Mr. Wahid's few achievements so far has been to bring the military under some semblance of civilian control after the long Suharto era. But his weakening leadership threatens to let that slip away.

The seeming inability of President Wahid to solve the challenges he faces is worrying. The Indonesian president has a leadership style which can at best be described as detached and at worst negligent. His response to the concern that many ordinary Indonesians feel about the corruption charges against him has been to say that he is unconcerned about the prospect of impeachment. Mr. Wahid has tended to blame remnants of the Suharto regime and the former leader's Golkar Party for the chaos. This is partly true, but blame must rest with Mr. Wahid as well for failing to be a more decisive leader.

Given the fractured power structure in Indonesia, there is a real danger of civil unrest and anarchy. Suggestions have been made of a Philippine-style uprising to overthrow Mr. Wahid. But whereas in the Philippines, Joseph Estrada's ousting was followed by Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo stepping smoothly into the presidency, the scenario in Indonesia will be far less clear cut. With the political system badly divided, street battles between Mr. Wahid's supporters and the opposition are likely, with the military eventually stepping in to restore order. One likely winner in the power struggle is Golkar, the ruling party of the Suharto years. Golkar emerged as the second-largest party in the 1999 elections, and has done well in regional elections since then.

But a return to rule by the military and Golkar will be a severe blow to Indonesians who came out on to the streets to end the Suharto era, hoping for a more open and honest political system. They deserve better.

-- The South China Morning Post, Hong Kong