Changes looming in Sarawak

Changes looming in Sarawak

By Ranjit Singh

KUALA LUMPUR: Politics in Sarawak appears to be entering a new phase as the election process undergoes fundamental shifts.

The Sarawak Barisan Nasional is going to the polls from a position of strength and solidarity cast in the old mold. It is the Opposition, however, that is recasting the traditional pattern of politics in Sarawak.

One striking new development is that the challenge is spearheaded by peninsula-based political parties -- Parti Keadilan Nasional and the DAP -- though there is also a motley array of local Opposition groups and Independents.

Secondly, and more significantly, there is a perceptible shift in the epicenter of the battleground -- traditionally it was always the Iban/Dayak heartland; this time it is the Malay- Melanau constituencies. Also, compared to the 1996 election when the Barisan had practically little organized opposition, this one will be no mild affair.

PBB is standing in 30 seats; the SUPP 17; Sarawak National Party (SNAP) seven; and Parti Bansa Dayak Sarawak (PBDS) eight.

Barisan won 19 seats uncontested on nomination day in 1996. Even then, the DAP was able to win three seats for the first time. The Independents bagged another two.

Barisan nevertheless had a commanding position, winning 57 out of 62 seats. This time around, however, the political landscape is somewhat different. Barisan was able to win only four seats uncontested this time.

Though the Opposition failed to forge an electoral pact and will in fact be contesting against each other in some constituencies, the offensive against Barisan is unmistakable.

Compared to the 1996 election when the only organized opposition came from the DAP, this election is witnessing at least three important parties and two organized groups out to take on the government.

These parties included Keadilan which is fielding 25 candidates; the DAP which is fielding 13 and the State Reform Party which is putting up five. PAS is also contesting in three constituencies.

Among the important groups are the ABU group led by former Defense Minister Datuk Abang Abu Bakar Mustapha and another led by Salleh Jaffarudin, a former deputy education minister. These two groups are fielding independent candidates. Their number combined with individual Independents has risen to 63, the highest in any Sarawak election.

The danger to Barisan however is not from the large number of independent candidates, but from the 46 candidates put up by opposition political parties and from some Independents.

This election is obviously going to be a contest for the Malay-Melanau heartland.

Since 1970, when Parti Bumiputra came to power in collaboration with SUPP, thus displacing the Iban-dominated governments of Stephen Kalong Ningkan (SNAP) first in 1968 and that of Tawi Ali in 1969, the Ibans felt alienated.

In the 1970s, the government of Abdul Rahman Yakub faced stiff opposition from SNAP and in the 1980s, current chief minister Tan Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud's government faced an even bigger challenge from PBDS. In this 20-year period, the battleground was the Dayak constituencies.

But by 1991, it dawned upon PBDS that the Dayaks, especially the Ibans, could not be united. Moreover, the frequent constituency-delineation exercises had so reduced the number of Iban-majority seats that even if the Ibans and all the other Dayaks were to unite they would still not be able to form a government on their own.

Thus, paradoxically, this time the Iban heartland is comparatively safe. A hard look at the seven seats to be contested by PBDS (it has won one seat uncontested) showed that the opposition parties are putting up candidates in only three of them.

The picture is quite different for PBB -- it is challenged in all the 29 constituencies that it is contesting by a combined Opposition consisting of Keadilan, PAS, the ABU group and DAP.

So it is PBB that is the target this time.

But what about the Malay-Melanau heartland? Not all the 29 seats allocated to PBB are Malay-Melanau majority seats. Some are obviously Iban and Bidayuh seats controlled by PBB.

A closer look at the constituencies again revealed that there are 20 Malay-Melanau majority constituencies. Except for Dalat, all the remaining 19 are contested by PBB Malay-Melanau candidates and challenged by Malay-Melanau opponents put up by Keadilan (11), PAS (two), DAP (1) and Independents including the ABU group (five).

There is obviously a strong offensive mounted by the Opposition to wrest control of the Malay-Melanau heartland.

There is little possibility of PAS and the ABU group winning any seat, thus PBB may lose some ground but not much.

The SUPP looks very likely to retain the 13 seats it captured in 1996.

So whatever damage the Barisan may eventually sustain may not be that devastating after all.

Two things however seem certain -- firstly, PBB will have to bear the brunt of the Opposition's attack and, secondly, whatever the outcome of today's polls, the contours of Sarawak politics may see radical change.

Prof. Ranjit Singh writes on and teaches east Malaysian history at Universiti Malaya in Kuala Lumpur.

-- The Star/Asia News Network