Changes looming in Sarawak

Changes looming in Sarawak

By Ranjit Singh

KUALA LUMPUR: Politics in Sarawak appears to be entering a new
phase as the election process undergoes fundamental shifts.

The Sarawak Barisan Nasional is going to the polls from a
position of strength and solidarity cast in the old mold. It is
the Opposition, however, that is recasting the traditional
pattern of politics in Sarawak.

One striking new development is that the challenge is
spearheaded by peninsula-based political parties -- Parti
Keadilan Nasional and the DAP -- though there is also a motley
array of local Opposition groups and Independents.

Secondly, and more significantly, there is a perceptible shift
in the epicenter of the battleground -- traditionally it was
always the Iban/Dayak heartland; this time it is the Malay-
Melanau constituencies. Also, compared to the 1996 election when
the Barisan had practically little organized opposition, this one
will be no mild affair.

PBB is standing in 30 seats; the SUPP 17; Sarawak National
Party (SNAP) seven; and Parti Bansa Dayak Sarawak (PBDS) eight.

Barisan won 19 seats uncontested on nomination day in 1996.
Even then, the DAP was able to win three seats for the first
time. The Independents bagged another two.

Barisan nevertheless had a commanding position, winning 57 out
of 62 seats. This time around, however, the political landscape
is somewhat different. Barisan was able to win only four seats
uncontested this time.

Though the Opposition failed to forge an electoral pact and
will in fact be contesting against each other in some
constituencies, the offensive against Barisan is unmistakable.

Compared to the 1996 election when the only organized
opposition came from the DAP, this election is witnessing at
least three important parties and two organized groups out to
take on the government.

These parties included Keadilan which is fielding 25
candidates; the DAP which is fielding 13 and the State Reform
Party which is putting up five. PAS is also contesting in three
constituencies.

Among the important groups are the ABU group led by former
Defense Minister Datuk Abang Abu Bakar Mustapha and another led
by Salleh Jaffarudin, a former deputy education minister. These
two groups are fielding independent candidates. Their number
combined with individual Independents has risen to 63, the
highest in any Sarawak election.

The danger to Barisan however is not from the large number of
independent candidates, but from the 46 candidates put up by
opposition political parties and from some Independents.

This election is obviously going to be a contest for the
Malay-Melanau heartland.

Since 1970, when Parti Bumiputra came to power in
collaboration with SUPP, thus displacing the Iban-dominated
governments of Stephen Kalong Ningkan (SNAP) first in 1968 and
that of Tawi Ali in 1969, the Ibans felt alienated.

In the 1970s, the government of Abdul Rahman Yakub faced stiff
opposition from SNAP and in the 1980s, current chief minister Tan
Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud's government faced an even bigger challenge
from PBDS. In this 20-year period, the battleground was the Dayak
constituencies.

But by 1991, it dawned upon PBDS that the Dayaks, especially
the Ibans, could not be united. Moreover, the frequent
constituency-delineation exercises had so reduced the number of
Iban-majority seats that even if the Ibans and all the other
Dayaks were to unite they would still not be able to form a
government on their own.

Thus, paradoxically, this time the Iban heartland is
comparatively safe. A hard look at the seven seats to be
contested by PBDS (it has won one seat uncontested) showed that
the opposition parties are putting up candidates in only three of
them.

The picture is quite different for PBB -- it is challenged in
all the 29 constituencies that it is contesting by a combined
Opposition consisting of Keadilan, PAS, the ABU group and DAP.

So it is PBB that is the target this time.

But what about the Malay-Melanau heartland? Not all the 29
seats allocated to PBB are Malay-Melanau majority seats. Some are
obviously Iban and Bidayuh seats controlled by PBB.

A closer look at the constituencies again revealed that there
are 20 Malay-Melanau majority constituencies. Except for Dalat,
all the remaining 19 are contested by PBB Malay-Melanau
candidates and challenged by Malay-Melanau opponents put up by
Keadilan (11), PAS (two), DAP (1) and Independents including the
ABU group (five).

There is obviously a strong offensive mounted by the
Opposition to wrest control of the Malay-Melanau heartland.

There is little possibility of PAS and the ABU group winning
any seat, thus PBB may lose some ground but not much.

The SUPP looks very likely to retain the 13 seats it captured
in 1996.

So whatever damage the Barisan may eventually sustain may not
be that devastating after all.

Two things however seem certain -- firstly, PBB will have to
bear the brunt of the Opposition's attack and, secondly, whatever
the outcome of today's polls, the contours of Sarawak politics
may see radical change.

Prof. Ranjit Singh writes on and teaches east Malaysian
history at Universiti Malaya in Kuala Lumpur.

-- The Star/Asia News Network