Chances of new war in Mindanao growing

Chances of new war in Mindanao growing

MANILA (AFP): Moslem leader Nur Misuari said yesterday the
chances of a new war breaking out in the Philippines' southern
Mindanao island have sharply increased after the latest round of
peace talks ended in deadlock.

The chairman of the rebel Moro National Liberation Front
(MNLF) also warned in a radio interview of a possible
consolidation of Islamic forces in Mindanao to demand a separate
Moslem state if the negotiations fail.

"I think the chances of peace and the chances of war are
equal," Misuari said on Manila radio station DZRH from his hotel
in the southern port city of Zamboanga.

"On a scale, I see that our chances are now 50-50. Before, I
gave the chances of peace 80 to 90 percent or even more," said
Misuari, who arrived in the southern Jolo island last week on a
private plane lent by the Indonesian government.

Two days of mixed committee talks, supervised by the
Organization of the Islamic Conference, ended in the city of
Zamboanga on Saturday with both sides still poles apart on how a
Moslem autonomous region will be carved out. The negotiations are
to resume in May.

The rebel leader blamed Manila for its "dogmatic" position on
the most crucial issue -- the granting of Moslem-self rule to 13
provinces and nine cities in the south to end over 20 years of
sectarian strife which claimed more than 50,000 lives.

The MNLF mounted a failed war for Moslem independence in
Mindanao in the early 1970s. The rebellion ended with a formal
truce signed in 1976 in Tripoli, Libya in which the MNLF settled
for autonomy in 13 provinces and nine cities in the south.

But the pact has never been implemented and armed clashes
continued, until 1993 when the MNLF signed a ceasefire with
President Fidel Ramos' government.

During the Zamboanga talks, Manila's negotiators insisted on
following a constitutional provision calling for a plebiscite in
the said areas -- most of which have Christian majorities -- to
determine which of them want to join a Moslem-ruled region.

Misuari has rejected this, saying that the Tripoli Agreement
-- which grants self-rule to the 13 provinces and nine cities
without a referendum -- should have primacy over the
constitution.

"Our position is that we should not be that legalistic because
we cannot put into the legal framework the Tripoli Agreement,"
Misuari said, arguing that being an international treaty, "it
cannot be subsumed (under) the domestic law."

"If we agree on that point, I think we will go all the way in
having peace in Mindanao and the entire Philippines," he said.
Negotiators from both sides have already resolved many issues
such as the educational, judicial and financial systems to
operate under the proposed new Moslem region since talks began in
1993.

But the issue at hand is seen as the most crucial and vital to
the talks' success or failure.

Misuari also said it was possible that the MNLF's more radical
offshoots -- the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the Abu
Sayyaf extremist group -- could join forces and resume their
separatist war if the talks collapse completely, but declined to
say if the MNLF would join them.

He said he saw evidence that MILF troops were building up
their troops and arsenal and that he also heard that the MILF and
the Abu Sayyaf are sharing resources and training facilities.

Some MILF leaders told him shortly after arriving in Zamboanga
last week that "if there is no hope for peace, it is better if we
continue the revolution for total independence of Mindanao."