Ceuta Migrant Surge: Who Bears Responsibility?

The Moroccan government has typically remained silent when questioned about the Ceuta border crisis, which saw tens of thousands of migrants cross into the Spanish exclave. On Sunday (2/8), Moroccan Interior Minister Rachid El Khalfi finally spoke out, attributing the incident to the “malicious exploitation of digital space”, “misleading information”, and a “misunderstanding of a Spanish Supreme Court decision”. Morocco insisted it never intended to cause a migrant surge at the border and pledged full cooperation with Spain.

Spain, however, suspects Moroccan involvement. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez described the breach as an “attack on Spain’s territorial sovereignty”. This suspicion was fuelled by circulating videos showing Moroccan security forces failing to act to stop the crowds from breaking through. Various explanations for the crisis have been offered, with some suggesting Spain’s rapprochement with Algeria angered Morocco, while others speculated about a US role, though no evidence supports this theory.

Analysts caution against simple explanations, noting Morocco bears different levels of responsibility. Isabelle Warenfels, a Maghreb expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), stated the situation is very different from 2021, when Morocco used foreign policy to pressure Spain over the Western Sahara dispute. She argued Morocco would now suffer “major losses, particularly to its international credibility and investment” if proven to have deliberately triggered the surge. Migration researcher Jochen Oltmer from the University of Osnabrück also warned against hasty conclusions, highlighting the unique status of Ceuta as a European exclave in Africa, decades of migration flows, the impact of social media, and migrants’ hopes for a better life abroad.

Oltmer said Moroccan authorities bear considerable responsibility, as “such border crossings would never happen if the Moroccan side did not ‘turn a blind eye’.” Werenfels did not dispute this assessment but suggested Morocco might have wanted to send a political signal to Spain regarding Madrid’s recent rapprochement with Algeria and its decision to grant citizenship to individuals born in Western Sahara before September 1977. However, she noted a significant difference between making a political statement and deliberately orchestrating a migration wave of this magnitude, adding that much information remains unclear.

Oltmer pointed to evidence suggesting Morocco played a role in the border chaos to further its political agenda, citing its long-standing claim as an indispensable partner for the EU on immigration policy. Werenfels suggested the situation may have spiralled out of control, arguing it is difficult to imagine Morocco risking a prolonged rift with Spain and the EU, especially as it depends on Spanish gas supplies. Both experts agreed on the root causes of migration, citing a lack of future prospects among young Moroccans due to weak education and healthcare sectors, which drives them to take the risk of moving abroad. They concluded that the Ceuta migrant crisis was not caused by a single factor.