Central and East Java identified as election hot spots

YOGYAKARTA (JP): The Armed Forces (ABRI) have identified Pekalongan in Central Java and Madura island in East Java as potential dangerous spots during the election campaign, which kicks off tomorrow, and the May 29 poll.

Some military officers have even conceded that the provinces of Central Java and East Java are areas that need "special attention", given the recent outburst of violence involving supporters of the three political parties.

East Java Police said "the dangerous spots are spread throughout the province" because of their remoteness from the capital, the people's temperament, or their history of political discontent. Police officers will safeguard polling in areas considered to have greater risks.

Armed Forces Chief of Sociopolitical Affairs Lt. Gen. Syarwan Hamid recently blamed the sporadic clashes on intensifying competition among political supporters. Political observer Afan Gaffar concurred, and attributed the heating up of situation to Golkar's aggressive campaign to regain lost votes in several regions in Java.

The lecturer at the Yogyakarta-based Gadjah Mada University said Golkar's total votes decreased by 5 percent on average during the 1992 elections. In the 1987 elections, Golkar gained 73.8 percent of the votes, while in 1992 the group gained 68 percent.

Golkar's votes decreased by 12 percent in three main regions: Central Java, East Java and Yogyakarta.

"It's a tradition of Golkar, that if it lost votes (in a region) it would go all out to regain them. That's what Golkar has been doing for this year's election," Afan said.

"No day will pass without efforts being made to mobilize support," he said, quoting Golkar chairman Harmoko's pledge after he was elected in 1993.

The painting of public objects in the yellow Golkar color, known as "yellowization", is one example of Golkar's relentless campaign to regain lost votes. Television and radio stations have also run daily footage of Harmoko's activities with Golkar cadres.

But the task of coordinating the campaign to win the hearts of the people has been entrusted to another influential Golkar leader, Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana, President Soeharto's eldest daughter.

Hardiyanti, better known as Tutut, has been campaigning to win the support of the people, accompanied by Abdurrahman Wahid, the chairman of the 30 million-strong Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) Moslem organization.

One of the effects of such an aggressive campaign is repulsion. The "yellowization" campaign might have been considered a success outside of Java.

But in Java, the United Development Party (PPP) chose to retaliate. Seven local branches of PPP in Surakarta, organized by local PPP leader Mudrick S. Sangidu, filed a lawsuit against Governor Suwardi who spearheaded the yellowization campaign in Central Java.

More violent resistance took place in Pekalongan and Temanggung, in Central Java. PPP supporters became enraged when local authorities removed their banners and replaced them with Golkar's. The incident culminated in a riot targeting people of Chinese descent and their property.

Riswandha Imawan, another political observer from Yogyakarta, had earlier warned the "yellowization" campaign would backfire and harm Golkar.

Afan said the unrest in Central Java would not have taken place had the local authorities made an effort to understand the social, economic and political background of the local communities.

"If they had understood, they wouldn't have tried to force people to support Golkar. Before the New Order administration, Central Java was the stronghold of Masyumi and NU," he said, referring to the now defunct Islamic parties.

In the early years of the New Order administration under President Soeharto, Central Java was considered the stronghold of PPP.

"The economic policies of this administration had harmed the interests of the community of santri," Afan said, referring to students and managers of pesantren (Islamic boarding schools).

Conflict

Golkar's campaign to regain lost votes in Central Java might have met with resistance from PPP supporters, but was boosted by the protracted conflict within the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI).

Chairman Soerjadi repeatedly said the minority party was ready for the general election. But Soerjadi, who ousted Megawati Soekarnoputri in a government-backed congress in Medan last year, has often failed to hold open meetings with his supporters.

In Wonogiri, Central Java, a group of Megawati supporters not only prevented the planned meeting but also tried to attack him. Soerjadi escaped unhurt, but the cars of his supporters were vandalized.

Megawati loyalists have also chosen non-violent means of protest. Various chapters and branches, especially in Yogyakarta and Central Java, have taken legal action against Soerjadi's supporters and have been filing suit after suit.

Rustriningsih, chief of the Kebumen branch of PDI, and a Megawati supporter, said that even if the court eventually ruled in favor of Soerjadi's group, "the public will know who it is that really represents the aspirations of PDI".

"The court sessions in various districts in the country are beneficial for Megawati. This is political education, and the mass media exposure on our activities help us maintain our existence," Rustriningsih said.

Rustriningsih added that if Megawati's group was still left unrepresented, her supporters would make their vote invalid.

This does not mean that it has been easy for Megawati supporters. Authorities have been tightening their grip on the group, dismissing the existence of Megawati supporters in various regions and using force to disperse demonstrations.

Earlier this month in Yogyakarta, security personnel dispersed demonstrations in support of Megawati and called for a boycott of the election. The security personnel also arrested 30 students and activists. Several of them will be tried and may face up to seven years of imprisonment.

Intolerable

Local military chief Col. Abdul Rahman Gaffar said the demonstrators were arrested because they violated the law. "The activists had become intolerable. They had influenced people to boycott the general election and become Golput," he said.

Literally meaning "white group", Golput are people who either abstain from voting or make their vote invalid.

Political observer Arief Budiman, who is also considered a Golput leader, said the state apparatus had increasingly used strong-arm tactics to ensure victory for Golkar.

"It's like the general election, which the government organizes, has to be a success, even at the expense of many people who don't agree with it, including the Megawati camp who still have grassroot support," he said.

He said the heavy-handed stance of the government would force more people to protest by either abstaining or making their vote invalid.

In previous elections, only educated urbanites boycotted polls, he said. "This time, the common people will also become Golput out of their disappointment over the situation in PDI," he said.

Afan Gaffar said the conflict in PDI would mean an increase in votes for Golkar. He predicted Golkar would gain between 73 percent and 75 percent of the votes, while PDI would only gain 10 percent of the votes.

"The number of abstainers will increase significantly, but not more than 10 percent of the total number of eligible voters," he said.

Arief Budiman said the government had dismissed the increase in the number of abstainers as "insignificant". But "the increase shows that the elections haven't been conducted in a fair manner and haven't satisfied people's aspirations. Such elections are a failure," he said. (team)