CELIOS Questions Anomalies in Indonesia's Q2 2026 Economic Growth Data

The Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS) has questioned the validity of Statistics Indonesia’s (BPS) report showing economic growth of 5.29% in the second quarter of 2026, up from 5.12% in the same period last year. CELIOS Director Nailul Huda argued the data is inconsistent with actual conditions on the ground, particularly regarding consumption and industrial activity. He noted that the Consumer Confidence Index (IKK) released by Bank Indonesia showed a decline, with year-on-year growth recorded at just 1.0% in April, 2.9% in May, and 0.0% in June. ‘There was no significant increase in consumer confidence,’ Huda stated. He also highlighted a discrepancy in the retail sector, which BPS reported grew by 6.39%, while Bank Indonesia’s Real Sales Index (IPR) showed contractions of 3.67% in April, 3.89% in May, and 4.44% in June. Huda further questioned the contribution of the non-oil and gas processing industry, which reportedly grew 5.32%, despite the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing hovering around the contractionary threshold of 49.1 to 50 during the quarter. From an expenditure perspective, Huda noted that growth in Gross Fixed Capital Formation (PMTB) was largely supported by imports of commercial vehicles for the Koperasi Desa/Kelurahan Merah Putih (KDKMP) programme, which adds minimal value to the domestic automotive industry. He also expressed scepticism regarding the 5.06% growth in household consumption, pointing out that the portion of income allocated to consumption fell to 72-73% from 74-75% a year earlier, indicating that spending was restrained. ‘My suspicion is that the increase in consumption was supported by the wealthy, which ultimately causes the spending gap to widen further,’ Huda concluded.