Ceasefire Provides Positive Buffer for Rupiah, Market Monitors Oil Prices
The conditional two-week ceasefire agreed upon by US President Donald Trump with Iran has provided a positive buffer for the rupiah’s exchange rate after it had weakened. This was stated by Permata Bank economist Josua Pardede.
“I see the news of the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran as indeed providing a positive buffer for the rupiah, but its impact is more as a pressure reliever,” he said in Jakarta on Wednesday (8/4).
According to him, the rupiah’s exchange rate will heavily depend on the direction following the ceasefire. The conflict, which is hoped to subside, could merely be a pause that pushes pressure on the rupiah again.
The ceasefire, he said, will affect the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, allowing ships to pass through again. This is because it is a vital route for global oil distribution that influences oil prices.
If global oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, he said this would instead become a new baseline, and the world cannot return to the pre-Iran war conditions.
After the ceasefire agreement was announced, Josua noted that Brent crude prices fell around 16% to $91.70 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 14%.
The US dollar index was also reported to weaken by around 0.6-0.7%, US Treasury yields declined, and markets reopened the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut of up to about 60% by year-end.
The combination of these two factors, he said, can reduce pressure from energy imports and dampen the push for dollar strengthening as a safe-haven asset, thereby preventing further rupiah depreciation.
“Before this news, the market was still very cautious. I assess that this ceasefire sentiment is not yet strong enough to reverse the rupiah’s direction,” he stated.
The ceasefire between the United States and Iran has impacted the strengthening of the rupiah’s exchange rate. At the close of trading on Wednesday (8/4), the rupiah strengthened by 93 points or 0.54%.
The temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran, mediated by Pakistan, has become a positive catalyst for global financial markets, including Indonesia.
The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate strengthened significantly in Wednesday morning trading, in line with the easing of external pressures due to global geopolitical developments.
The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar recorded a positive performance at the opening of trading on Wednesday morning, 8 April 2026.
Bank Indonesia (BI) stated that stability is currently the top priority amid very high global uncertainty.
Several countries in the European region have given positive responses to the temporary two-week ceasefire agreement between Iran and the United States.
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