Car Sales Projected to Remain Stagnant, Industry Awaits New Momentum

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - National car sales are projected to return to the range of 800,000 units in 2026. This figure continues the trend of the last two years, where the four-wheeled vehicle market has tended to move stably without significant surges.

In recent periods, sales have not experienced sharp declines, but they have also not shown significant growth. Several industry players assess this condition as reflecting a market still in an adjustment phase.

“Many variables are influencing it,” said Rudy in Jakarta on Thursday (23/4/2026).

He added that this uncertainty means companies still need time to compile more accurate performance projections.

“We need more time to provide accurate guidance,” he said.

Nevertheless, the projection of around 800,000 units remains a reference used by several industry players in assessing next year’s market potential. In recent years, this figure has often emerged as the new equilibrium point for the national automotive market.

Several factors are considered to influence market movements, from public purchasing power to increasingly tight competition levels. On the other hand, the presence of new models, including electric and hybrid vehicles, has not yet fully driven significant increases in sales volume.

Rudy acknowledged that market growth is still occurring, albeit on a limited scale.

“There is growth, but it’s not large,” he said.

This condition is also evident from the lack of strong linkage between positive sentiments in other sectors and vehicle sales. One of them relates to rising commodity prices, which previously often impacted increased purchasing power in several regions.

“It’s difficult to translate rising commodity prices into significant growth,” said Rudy.

Meanwhile, the two-wheeled vehicle segment, which has a larger volume, is also projected to move within a limited range, namely around 6.4 million to 6.5 million units.