Capital Market Revival Faces Eighth Cycle Since the 2000s, Observe the Pattern
PT Henan Putihrai Sekuritas has detailed that since 2000, the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) has undergone eight major correction cycles. As of 15 June 2026, this eighth cycle has brought the IHSG down 41.72 percent from its peak, making it the third deepest correction in the modern history of Indonesia’s capital market.
The management of Henan Putihrai Sekuritas stated that all seven previous cycles have concluded, and each ended in the same manner. “The IHSG returned to its previous peak, then made a new high,” the management said in its analysis on Monday, 15 June 2026.
They explained that an investor does not need to be an analyst to read the market well; what is required is the right frame of mind. The framework used in this series divides each correction cycle into four phases. These four phases represent a pattern that has appeared consistently across the seven event cycles affecting Indonesia’s capital market since 2000. The seven cycles include: 1. Bali Bombing (2002), 2. Global Financial Crisis (GFC, 2008), 3. European Debt Crisis and Black Monday (2011), 4. Taper Tantrum (2013), 5. China Yuan Devaluation (2015), 6. COVID-19 (2020), 7. Trump Tariff Storm (2025), and now the ongoing eighth cycle.
“For Cycle 8, the answer depends on a small number of identifiable catalysts, the most immediate being the MSCI announcement on 18 June,” they noted.
Looking ahead, the management of Henan Putihrai Sekuritas said there are several signals and milestones to watch. First, the MSCI decision on whether Indonesia is retained in the Emerging Market category is the most important signal for Cycle 8. Second, the organic stabilisation of the rupiah towards the Rp 15,000–Rp 16,000 range. Third, the direction of the BI Rate towards cuts is the third signal, which historically has always preceded or coincided with the Recovery Phase.
They explained that it is important to observe the sequence of the three signals above, as it reflects the structural reality that distinguishes Cycle 8 from previous cycles. “In past corrections, Bank Indonesia almost always cut interest rates as a mechanism to drive capital back into equities,” they said. In Cycle 8, that option can arguably be said to be unavailable, because cutting interest rates would further weaken the rupiah, contrary to current macroeconomic needs.