Can Trump Pressure Israel to Accept the Gaza Peace Plan?

US President Donald Trump has called the new Gaza peace plan a “historic breakthrough.” However, the plan announced last week to end the fighting and alleviate the humanitarian crisis has so far only resulted in a new stalemate for the warring parties. Experts highlight several differences between the new peace deal and previous agreements. Firstly, this agreement is far more detailed and substantial. Secondly, Trump’s statement indicates he might be willing to press Israel to accept the deal. Thirdly, the Gaza-based group Hamas has agreed to disarm this month, after opposing the idea for years. Hamas sent its fighters to launch an attack on Israel on 7 October 2023. The assault resulted in more than 1,000 deaths and triggered a massive Israeli military operation in Gaza lasting nearly three years. The Israeli military has killed more than 73,000 people in Gaza. A UN independent commission of inquiry has classified Israel’s military actions as genocide. The crucial point in any Gaza peace plan is the sequence of events. Israel demands that Hamas disarm before Israel withdraws its troops from Gaza. In early July, Hamas refused to disarm before an Israeli withdrawal. With no common ground, a prolonged deadlock ensued. However, Hamas has since agreed to hand over its authority to the National Committee for Gaza Administration (NCAG), an independent technocratic group formed to govern Gaza. By the end of July, Hamas also agreed to hand over its weapons to the NCAG. Muhammad Shehada, a visiting researcher from Gaza with the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Affairs, said Hamas’s decision to disarm after years of fighting Israel should be taken seriously. Hamas is under pressure from the negotiating countries, Egypt and Qatar. This could be a political tactic “to show that Israel is the party obstructing any progress in Gaza under the government of (Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu,” Shehada said. However, Shehada added, “They would not make such a major and historic concession unless they were truly cornered and understood this is the only way.” If Israel agrees to the new peace plan, Hamas would also be unable to renege on it. “They will be bound,” Shehada told DW. “Because if they violate the disarmament agreement, they will give Israel an absolute reason to resume military operations in Gaza and scupper the entire Trump deal. Hamas would then be blamed by the entire Palestinian community.” On the other hand, Hamas might also understand that Israel is highly unlikely to agree to the deal, so there is no need to worry that the disarmament process will actually happen soon, he added. Israel immediately voiced its objections to the new US-proposed 15-point agreement. “The version that has been published does not reflect Israel’s position,” a spokesperson for the Israeli prime minister’s office told the AFP news agency. Far-right Israeli Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir called the deal “unacceptable” on social media, adding that “the killing in Gaza must continue.” Israel is set to hold elections in October, and Netanyahu faces tight competition. If he makes any concessions on Gaza, he will likely face public protests and a lack of potential coalition partners from the far-right parties. “Netanyahu faces a crucial election in less than 90 days, and while there may be some leeway on other issues like Lebanon or Iran, he cannot be seen as flexible on Hamas,” explained Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The shadow of 7 October still hangs very dark and heavy over Israel, and it will remain so for a long time,” the senior fellow said. Shehada added that Netanyahu will try to thwart any form of peace deal in Gaza until the Israeli elections take place, as it would be akin to “political suicide” for him. Following a meeting last Monday between Netanyahu and the US-led Peace Council, it was announced that the disarmament of Hamas and the withdrawal of Israeli troops would now not be carried out in phases, as detailed in the new 15-point plan. Observers believe gradual progress is important to give each side time to build trust. After Israel’s protest, the plan appears to have returned to its original, absolute starting point: Israel will only withdraw after Hamas is completely disarmed. According to Shehada and other experts, there is really only one way to change this: pressure from the US. “Israel … will be under immense pressure from Trump to follow the plan or risk provoking his anger by derailing what he claims is a historic breakthrough,” Alan Pino, a senior fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Middle East programme, wrote in an opinion piece for the US think tank last week. There has already been some evidence of pressure from Trump. For instance, when the US President released the 15-point plan, reports indicated that Trump released it without first consulting Israel. After the plan was released, a senior US official briefed journalists off the record and implied that Trump would be “very, very disappointed” if Israel did not follow the new plan.