Can Asia be spared another nuclear holocaust?

Can Asia be spared another nuclear holocaust?

By Imron Cotan

JAKARTA (JP): Argentina, Brazil, Israel, Pakistan and India
were once considered the "threshold countries" which possessed
the technical capabilities to become nuclear weapon states.

Fortunately, after succumbing to regional and global
pressures, Argentina and Brazil have both agreed to put aside
their nuclear ambitions and have signed a number of regional and
multilateral agreements to that effect. The international
community, especially the Western world, has warmly welcomed
these encouraging attitudes. Argentina has even been accorded and
enjoyed a special status in the Western countries in various
international negotiating forums.

In the field of nuclear disarmament India and Pakistan have
consistently called all nuclear weapon states, namely the United
States of America, the Russian Federation, France, the United
Kingdom and China, to multilaterally and comprehensively
negotiate nuclear disarmament. All nonaligned countries have
always supported this stand.

The reluctance of the nuclear weapon states, especially the
U.S. and Russia, to relinquish the nuclear weapon option is
basically because they have mastered its cutting edge technology,
which opens the possibility for them to design small-size nuclear
weapons (mini-nukes) to be used for tactical purposes.

The ability of the U.S. to produce mini-nuke warheads (W-88)
-- the technology of which was allegedly stolen by China -- is a
case in point. This cutting edge technology has fundamentally
changed the way the decision-makers, in particular the ones from
Washington, see the military value of nuclear weapons.

The explosion of nuclear devices conducted by India, which
were followed by Pakistan in 1997, were in sharp contrast to
their stated goal to free the world from these weapons of mass
destruction. South Asia's political realities, as well as the
potential and real threats within the region, have instead forced
the two countries to go nuclear.

The nuclear arms race in the region has a chain reaction
nature. It is difficult to imagine a situation in which India
possesses no nuclear weapons while sharing borders with China --
one of the major nuclear weapon states -- against whom India has
fought a major war. The situation has recently been more alarming
because China continues to develop its nuclear weapon capacity.

A similar situation is also applied to Pakistan, which shares
borders with India and has overlapping territorial claims over
the Jammu and Kashmir regions, over which the two countries have
also fiercely fought several limited wars. This fragile security
condition in South Asia is predicted to linger for a long time,
and may well be one of the most dangerous flash points in the
next millennium.

A way out is therefore urgently required to resolve the
prevailing conflicts in the region. Their continuance will
certainly disrupt the already delicate security conditions in
South Asia. In a much broader context, they will also affect Asia
and the Pacific region, where the countries of the Association of
the Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are located.

Among the three Asian nuclear weapon states, India and China
have publicly disclosed their nuclear weapon doctrines, while
Pakistan has yet to disclose its program.

Taking into account that the nuclear weapon states will
continue to determine their military might on the doctrine of
"nuclear deterrence", and that the use of nuclear weapons for
tactical purposes is now viable, India considers it is unlikely
to eventually achieve nuclear disarmament.

For these particular reasons and without totally negating
first, the achievement of nuclear disarmament under a strict and
effective international control, and second, the fulfillment of
its national interests in the fields of politics, and science and
technology, India deems it necessary to complement its arsenal
with nuclear weapons in order to secure the country's national
interests.

Like the other nuclear weapon states, India now believes that
its security and survival are contingent upon the doctrine of
nuclear deterrence. However, India stressed that this doctrine is
non-offensive in nature and is based on principles enshrined in
the United Nations Charter, which inter alia guarantees "the
right of self defense". In other words, India has unilaterally
declared that it will not be the first to use nuclear weapons
(non-first use), and that it will only employ these weapons for
retaliatory purposes.

Of the existing five major nuclear weapon states, only China
has so far embraced such a policy. This doctrine requires a full
capability of striking back.

Unlike the U.S., Russia, or perhaps China, India is far from
mastering the state of the art nuclear technologies. Therefore,
India's non-offensive nuclear weapons doctrine is presumably
designed first, to send a strong signal to China that India's
nuclear arsenal is not directed nor designed to threaten China,
and second, to warn Pakistan against using or threatening to use
nuclear weapons against India.

In an attempt to position themselves as peace-loving
countries, India and China also emphasized that they would not
use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against any state which
does not have nuclear weapons and military links with any nuclear
weapon states (negative security assurances). However, it is
worth noting that India fails to provide this security blanket to
those states which are parties to nuclear weapon-free zone
treaties such as the ASEAN countries.

The situation is alarming because India has developed
ballistic missiles which range beyond the Southeast Asian region
(Phritvi and Agni). Therefore, there is a need for regional or
globally concerted efforts to convince India -- or all nuclear
weapon states for that matter -- to spare the nuclear weapon-free
zones from nuclear weapon threats.

This need is even more pressing because India has decided to
synergize the potentials of its navy, army and air force to
support the use of these weapons. This fact merits our serious
attention. Although India has committed itself to the principle
of non-first use, the adoption of this policy clearly indicates
India's intention to become a global power, or at least a
powerful regional player.

The reelection of Prime Minister Vajpayee of the Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP) is expected to provide more ammunition for
India to become a global power. It is worth drawing attention to
the fact that India detonated nuclear devices immediately after
the BJP came to power.

Taking into account that the world will no longer be able to
put the genie back into the bottle, countries in the region must
take a series of bold measures to prevent the South Asian theater
-- or in a much broader context Asia and the Pacific region --
from experiencing nuclear disasters for the second time, after
Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.

With the knowledge that major nuclear weapon states have
mastered cutting edge nuclear technology, the world can
anticipate that the impact of nuclear weapons if they were used
would be far more devastating than those used on Hiroshima and
Nagasaki. It is therefore an urgent task for countries in the
region to convince India, as well as Pakistan and China, to
exercise self-restraint and to refrain from resorting to nuclear
weapons to resolve conflicts.

More importantly, there is a need to push them to jointly
agree to de-target all countries that are parties to nuclear
weapon-free zone treaties.

Pakistan has yet to come up with its nuclear doctrine, while
India and China have both committed to the non-first use
principle. It is for this particular reason that countries in the
region must take a leading role. First, to immediately negotiate
an international legally binding regime on non-first use of
nuclear weapons. Second, to provide the security blanket not only
to nonnuclear weapon states, but to all parties to nuclear
weapon-free zone treaties such as the Rarotonga Treaty, the
Tlatelolco Treaty and the Bangkok Treaty.

ASEAN countries, especially Indonesia, have proven themselves
to be reliable regional peacemakers. Unfortunately, the
organization has recently gone through a trying period in which
solidarity among its members has significantly dwindled. Worse
still, Indonesia's seemingly endless power struggle has severely
trimmed its ability to contribute for many years to come to the
preservation and promotion of peace and stability in the region.

If the ASEAN block manages to regain its mediating role, this
region will likely be spared a second nuclear holocaust. It will
in turn provide countries of the region with a much wider
opportunity to develop and prepare themselves to confront the
uncertain new millennium.

The writer is a former United Nations Disarmament Fellow and
an expert on international peace and security affairs residing in
Jakarta.