Campaign to sway 30% of voters: Experts

Moch. N. Kurniawan, Jakarta

At least 70 percent of voters have already made up their mind about who they will vote for on July 5 even before the campaign period has begun, limiting the effectiveness of the campaign, according to one researcher.

Muhammad Qodari of the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) said on Tuesday that voter's were influenced by the popularity of presidential candidates, loyalty to political parties and money.

"The popularity of each presidential candidate will have the most influence on voters with 50 percent, followed by loyalty to political parties at 30 percent and money at 20 percent," Qodari said during a discussion ahead of an international seminar on presidential campaign management in Jakarta on May 24 and 25.

The seminar will be organized by the School of Economics of the University of Indonesia and George Washington University in the U.S.

Ricardo Carreras Lario, president of U.S.-based Campaigns International said the campaign was targeted at the 30 percent of undecided voters.

"It's common in many countries where 70 percent of voters have had their presidential choices made before the campaign period. In the campaign period, the aim is not to win those voters but to approach the remainder who still are undecided," he said.

The campaign period will run from June 1 through 31. Six candidates have registered with the General Elections Commission (KPU).

According to Qodari, the popularity of candidates depends on a rational choice, psychological factors and demographic similarities.

Rational choices, he said, included a voter's appraisal that a presidential candidates were capable of coping with the country's problems.

Psychological choices would be based on an evaluation of whether the presidential candidates had good character such as charm, patience and honesty, he added.

Choices based on demographic similarity would be ethnic differences, military, regional similarities between presidential candidates and voters, he added.

Qodari also said that political parties might not have strong influence or be able to mobilize their members and supporters to vote for one presidential candidate.

He cited LSI's survey that suggested that some 97 percent of Democratic Party supporters would vote for Gen. (ret.) Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, 70 percent of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (DPI-P) supporters would vote for Megawati Soekarnoputri and 60 percent of the National Mandate Party (PAN) supporters would choose Amien Rais for president.

From the Golkar party, he estimated that as many as 45 percent of Golkar supporters would choose Susilo, while just 30 percent would vote for Golkar's candidate, Gen. (ret.) Wiranto.

"So, although Golkar won the legislative election, it does not mean that its presidential candidate will win the presidential election," Qodari said.

Regarding the power of money to get voters, Qodari said presidential candidate may spend their money to advertise in the mass media but the impact would be minimal.

"It is because the laws have limited the spending of presidential candidates to put their advertisements in the mass media," he said.

He said, for example, PDI-P advertisements in the legislative election were numerous, but they only got 18 percent of the votes, behind Golkar's 21.5 percent.