Cambodian chaos tests ASEAN's hands-off creed
Cambodian chaos tests ASEAN's hands-off creed
By Bill Tarrant
KUALA LUMPUR (Reuter): Cambodia's descent into political chaos
will test a fundamental creed of the Association of South East
Asian Nations (ASEAN) -- thou shalt not interfere in the affairs
of thy neighbors.
Cambodia, along with Myanmar and Laos, will be formally
admitted as members at ASEAN's annual meeting in Kuala Lumpur at
the end of July.
But with rival Cambodian leaders unable to settle their
differences and Myanmar being treated as a pariah state by the
West over its human rights records, ASEAN will inevitably be
drawn into the affairs of its members, analysts said.
"Cambodia's difficulties are going to be ASEAN's
difficulties," said Yusuf Wanandi, chairman of the supervisory
board of Indonesia's Center for Strategic and International
Studies.
"Cambodia's history and geopolitical situation have made this
a fact for ASEAN," he told a recent conference on ASEAN in Kuala
Lumpur.
Cambodian co-Premiers Prince Norodom Ranariddh and Hun Sen
have for months been locked in a bitter feud over power sharing
in their coalition, with both men striving to bolster their
strength in the run-up to elections next year.
Ties were strained this week over Ranariddh's attempt to
strike a deal with the Khmer Rouge, blamed for the death of more
than a million people during its 1975-79 "killing fields" rule.
The streets of Phnom Penh were rocked by volleys of gunfire
and grenades on Tuesday, which killed two of Ranariddh's security
men, but by Friday the capital had returned to relative calm.
Hun Sen dismissed Tuesday's violence as a bodyguard squabble,
but security chiefs of the two sides traded assassination
accusations.
Analysts said ASEAN countries could drop their reluctance to
get involved in each other's affairs by acting as a buffer
between Cambodia's factions in the interest of regional
stability, analysts said.
"It's not just a question of non-interference, but a question
more fundamentally about the strength and stability of ASEAN,"
said Daljit Singh, research analyst with Singapore's Institute of
Southeast Asian Studies.
"But it (intervention) will be done in the ASEAN way, quietly,
behind the scenes, no loss of face by either party," he added.
ASEAN's current chairman, Malaysian Foreign Minister Abdullah
Badawi, got the ball rolling on a recent visit to Phnom Penh to
inform the government it would be admitted in July.
Asked about the strife in Cambodia, Badawi said on Thursday:
"I spoke to both co-prime ministers earlier and both agreed that
cooperation was vital for the country's future. I hope the
situation will improve...it is an internal matter (so) let their
leaders resolve the matter."
At the time of Badawi's meeting in Cambodia earlier this
month, spokesmen for Cambodia's two premiers called the
discussions a success and said they would do everything to ensure
a smooth entry into ASEAN.
"In fact, it can be argued that the unifying factor between
the two major factions is Cambodia's membership of ASEAN,"
Wanandi said.
But Western diplomats were more skeptical.
"There's a general ostrich policy about Cambodia and Myanmar
in ASEAN," said one. "Stick your head in about four feet of sand
and hope it'll all go away. They're not getting too involved."
ASEAN -- currently grouping Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, the
Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam -- was founded 30
years ago as an anti-Communist bulwark at the height of the
Vietnam war. Back then, it was feared the countries of Indochina
would fall like dominoes to the Soviet bloc.
Today, the fears are about Chinese hegemony in the region.
Jose Almonte, director-general of the Philippines' National
Security Council, referred to this concern at a recent conference
in Kuala Lumpur.
ASEAN, he said, "could not easily prevent the continuing
vacuum of state power in Indochina -- particularly in Cambodia --
from sucking in the Thais, the Vietnamese and possibly the
Chinese".
Wanandi said Myanmar's dependence on China for arms was also
worrying ASEAN.