Cambodian chaos tests ASEAN's hands-off creed
Cambodian chaos tests ASEAN's hands-off creed
By Bill Tarrant
KUALA LUMPUR (Reuter): Cambodia's descent into political chaos will test a fundamental creed of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) -- thou shalt not interfere in the affairs of thy neighbors.
Cambodia, along with Myanmar and Laos, will be formally admitted as members at ASEAN's annual meeting in Kuala Lumpur at the end of July.
But with rival Cambodian leaders unable to settle their differences and Myanmar being treated as a pariah state by the West over its human rights records, ASEAN will inevitably be drawn into the affairs of its members, analysts said.
"Cambodia's difficulties are going to be ASEAN's difficulties," said Yusuf Wanandi, chairman of the supervisory board of Indonesia's Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"Cambodia's history and geopolitical situation have made this a fact for ASEAN," he told a recent conference on ASEAN in Kuala Lumpur.
Cambodian co-Premiers Prince Norodom Ranariddh and Hun Sen have for months been locked in a bitter feud over power sharing in their coalition, with both men striving to bolster their strength in the run-up to elections next year.
Ties were strained this week over Ranariddh's attempt to strike a deal with the Khmer Rouge, blamed for the death of more than a million people during its 1975-79 "killing fields" rule.
The streets of Phnom Penh were rocked by volleys of gunfire and grenades on Tuesday, which killed two of Ranariddh's security men, but by Friday the capital had returned to relative calm.
Hun Sen dismissed Tuesday's violence as a bodyguard squabble, but security chiefs of the two sides traded assassination accusations.
Analysts said ASEAN countries could drop their reluctance to get involved in each other's affairs by acting as a buffer between Cambodia's factions in the interest of regional stability, analysts said.
"It's not just a question of non-interference, but a question more fundamentally about the strength and stability of ASEAN," said Daljit Singh, research analyst with Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.
"But it (intervention) will be done in the ASEAN way, quietly, behind the scenes, no loss of face by either party," he added.
ASEAN's current chairman, Malaysian Foreign Minister Abdullah Badawi, got the ball rolling on a recent visit to Phnom Penh to inform the government it would be admitted in July.
Asked about the strife in Cambodia, Badawi said on Thursday: "I spoke to both co-prime ministers earlier and both agreed that cooperation was vital for the country's future. I hope the situation will improve...it is an internal matter (so) let their leaders resolve the matter."
At the time of Badawi's meeting in Cambodia earlier this month, spokesmen for Cambodia's two premiers called the discussions a success and said they would do everything to ensure a smooth entry into ASEAN.
"In fact, it can be argued that the unifying factor between the two major factions is Cambodia's membership of ASEAN," Wanandi said.
But Western diplomats were more skeptical.
"There's a general ostrich policy about Cambodia and Myanmar in ASEAN," said one. "Stick your head in about four feet of sand and hope it'll all go away. They're not getting too involved."
ASEAN -- currently grouping Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam -- was founded 30 years ago as an anti-Communist bulwark at the height of the Vietnam war. Back then, it was feared the countries of Indochina would fall like dominoes to the Soviet bloc.
Today, the fears are about Chinese hegemony in the region. Jose Almonte, director-general of the Philippines' National Security Council, referred to this concern at a recent conference in Kuala Lumpur.
ASEAN, he said, "could not easily prevent the continuing vacuum of state power in Indochina -- particularly in Cambodia -- from sucking in the Thais, the Vietnamese and possibly the Chinese".
Wanandi said Myanmar's dependence on China for arms was also worrying ASEAN.