Cambodia edges towards peace, prosperity and democracy

Cambodia edges towards peace, prosperity and democracy

By Sorpong Peou

Prospects for peace in the country have improved following a split in the Khmer Rouge

Cambodia may be on a slow but sure path towards peace, prosperity and democracy. The recent split in the Khmer Rouge between the so-called "moderates" led by former number two Ieng Sary and the so-called "hardliners" personified by Pol Pot is good news for the country and for Southeast Asia, for a number of reasons.

First, the Khmer Rouge break-up is beyond doubt. This is all happening after reports about Pol Pot's death in early June 1996 and after Second Prime Minister Hun Sen's visit to China in July. The fact that Khmer Rouge radio came into the open about the internal crisis on Aug. 8 is significant. Clearly things have gone out of control. Ieng Sary was denounced as a "a criminal who colluded with the enemy" and a "traitor" who "sold out the nation." If arrested, Ieng Sary would be executed.

Although information about the exact number of dissenting Khmer Rouge divisions has not been confirmed, reports have indicated there are 415 in Pailin, 450 around Phnom Malai, and perhaps others (250, 519, 750). If Phnom Malai and Pailin come under government control, the Khmer Rouge rebellion would soon become only a tiny thorn in its side.

Second, the dissidents' breakaway has not only demoralized the recalcitrant rebels, but will definitely divert their financial resources and substantially reduce their military clout.

All this will force them to make more concessions in future negotiations for peace, if these do occur. But the breakaway does not mean, however, that the "hardliners" will automatically stop fighting unless certain conditions are met.

Third, Cambodian leaders in Phnom Penh have displayed growing signs of political maturity. Second Prime Minister Hun Sen was wise to say the war is "meaningless" and make some concessions to the dissidents. His approach is, of course, a pragmatic one. First Prime Minister Norodom Ranaridh's pragmatic initiative to ask the National Assembly to rescind the anti-Khmer Rouge law is also praiseworthy. General Nhek Bunchhay, a top military officer belonging to the royalist party (Funcinpec) led by Prince Ranaridh, was also involved in the discussions for a peaceful settlement.

The ongoing negotiations between the government's armed forces and the dissidents seem to rest on the basic principle of conflict resolution based on a win-win approach. The dissidents are not forced against their will to disarm unilaterally. In fact, they are allowed to keep their weapons and the zones under their control, while being integrated into the government forces' structure and command.

Fourth, this win-win approach may be a good precedent for the other rebels to follow. The rest should be allowed to compete in the upcoming elections if they are willing to end their rebellion and if the government is willing to let them control their zone without any immediate requirement for unilateral disarmament. It is important that the rebels be gradually integrated into the political structure without putting them completely at the mercy of the government. The Khmer Rouge leadership has long been apprehensive about disarmament because it viewed it as a form of political suicide.

Fifth, the end of the Cambodian war will mean better prospects for regional security in Southeast Asia. Evidence suggests that domestic conflicts can become externalized; cross-border armed clashes have often been caused by internal fighting. When at peace, Cambodia can be expected to improve its relations with Thailand and Vietnam, both ASEAN members.

So far, due to the Khmer Rouge's anti-Vietnamese propaganda, the government has hesitated to show any warmth towards the leaders in Hanoi. The rebel strongholds along the Thai-Cambodian border have also raised Phnom Penh's suspicions that the Thais, especially the military establishment, are clandestinely supporting the rebels. A peaceful and stable Cambodia will, therefore, mean greater solidarity among ASEAN members.

After all is said and done, the recent developments must continue to be handled with great care. No Cambodian leader should exploit this opportunity by contemplating the possibility of upsetting the process of national reconciliation to advance their parochial or factional interests. The long-term national interest must come first.

Foreign powers, with their best intentions to help rebuild Cambodia, should continue to stay involved in the process of rebuilding Cambodia. Their financial and economic aid has so far served as a major stabilizing force in Cambodian politics. Nonetheless, they should be careful about the way they react to the government's deals with the dissidents. Some may be tempted (thinking that the deals have no moral grounds) to use aid as a political instrument to inhibit the process of peaceful settlement with the dissidents. This strategy, however morally justifiable it might seem, will be counterproductive. There are no quick fixes to the Cambodian problem and no shortcuts to peace, stability, and the process of democratization.

It may be worth keeping in mind that the anarchy in Cambodian political history calls for a win-win solution to the protracted conflict and for constructive foreign intervention. Cambodia is structurally too weak to be left standing on its own feet. Cambodia desperately needs an end to war and must speed up the process of economic development to ensure sustainable democratization. Punishment is not the best strategy because it will only create fear, distrust, anger and rebellion. Distrust and betrayal have long been chronic diseases in the Cambodian body politic.

If moral issues are of great importance, then peace means more lives will be saved, more time and effort will be devoted to promoting economic development and improving the standard of living.

Now is the time for peace, not war. An ancient proverb says: "Hatred stirs up strife, but love covers all transgressions".

Dr. Sorpong Peou is a Fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore.