Cambodia edges towards peace, prosperity and democracy

Cambodia edges towards peace, prosperity and democracy

By Sorpong Peou

Prospects for peace in the country have improved following a
split in the Khmer Rouge

Cambodia may be on a slow but sure path towards peace,
prosperity and democracy. The recent split in the Khmer Rouge
between the so-called "moderates" led by former number two Ieng
Sary and the so-called "hardliners" personified by Pol Pot is
good news for the country and for Southeast Asia, for a number of
reasons.

First, the Khmer Rouge break-up is beyond doubt. This is all
happening after reports about Pol Pot's death in early June 1996
and after Second Prime Minister Hun Sen's visit to China in July.
The fact that Khmer Rouge radio came into the open about the
internal crisis on Aug. 8 is significant. Clearly things have
gone out of control. Ieng Sary was denounced as a "a criminal who
colluded with the enemy" and a "traitor" who "sold out the
nation." If arrested, Ieng Sary would be executed.

Although information about the exact number of dissenting
Khmer Rouge divisions has not been confirmed, reports have
indicated there are 415 in Pailin, 450 around Phnom Malai, and
perhaps others (250, 519, 750). If Phnom Malai and Pailin come
under government control, the Khmer Rouge rebellion would soon
become only a tiny thorn in its side.

Second, the dissidents' breakaway has not only demoralized the
recalcitrant rebels, but will definitely divert their financial
resources and substantially reduce their military clout.

All this will force them to make more concessions in future
negotiations for peace, if these do occur. But the breakaway does
not mean, however, that the "hardliners" will automatically stop
fighting unless certain conditions are met.

Third, Cambodian leaders in Phnom Penh have displayed growing
signs of political maturity. Second Prime Minister Hun Sen was
wise to say the war is "meaningless" and make some concessions to
the dissidents. His approach is, of course, a pragmatic one.
First Prime Minister Norodom Ranaridh's pragmatic initiative to
ask the National Assembly to rescind the anti-Khmer Rouge law is
also praiseworthy. General Nhek Bunchhay, a top military officer
belonging to the royalist party (Funcinpec) led by Prince
Ranaridh, was also involved in the discussions for a peaceful
settlement.

The ongoing negotiations between the government's armed forces
and the dissidents seem to rest on the basic principle of
conflict resolution based on a win-win approach. The dissidents
are not forced against their will to disarm unilaterally. In
fact, they are allowed to keep their weapons and the zones under
their control, while being integrated into the government forces'
structure and command.

Fourth, this win-win approach may be a good precedent for the
other rebels to follow. The rest should be allowed to compete in
the upcoming elections if they are willing to end their rebellion
and if the government is willing to let them control their zone
without any immediate requirement for unilateral disarmament. It
is important that the rebels be gradually integrated into the
political structure without putting them completely at the mercy
of the government. The Khmer Rouge leadership has long been
apprehensive about disarmament because it viewed it as a form of
political suicide.

Fifth, the end of the Cambodian war will mean better prospects
for regional security in Southeast Asia. Evidence suggests that
domestic conflicts can become externalized; cross-border armed
clashes have often been caused by internal fighting. When at
peace, Cambodia can be expected to improve its relations with
Thailand and Vietnam, both ASEAN members.

So far, due to the Khmer Rouge's anti-Vietnamese propaganda,
the government has hesitated to show any warmth towards the
leaders in Hanoi. The rebel strongholds along the Thai-Cambodian
border have also raised Phnom Penh's suspicions that the Thais,
especially the military establishment, are clandestinely
supporting the rebels. A peaceful and stable Cambodia will,
therefore, mean greater solidarity among ASEAN members.

After all is said and done, the recent developments must
continue to be handled with great care. No Cambodian leader
should exploit this opportunity by contemplating the possibility
of upsetting the process of national reconciliation to advance
their parochial or factional interests. The long-term national
interest must come first.

Foreign powers, with their best intentions to help rebuild
Cambodia, should continue to stay involved in the process of
rebuilding Cambodia. Their financial and economic aid has so far
served as a major stabilizing force in Cambodian politics.
Nonetheless, they should be careful about the way they react to
the government's deals with the dissidents. Some may be tempted
(thinking that the deals have no moral grounds) to use aid as a
political instrument to inhibit the process of peaceful
settlement with the dissidents. This strategy, however morally
justifiable it might seem, will be counterproductive. There are
no quick fixes to the Cambodian problem and no shortcuts to
peace, stability, and the process of democratization.

It may be worth keeping in mind that the anarchy in Cambodian
political history calls for a win-win solution to the protracted
conflict and for constructive foreign intervention. Cambodia is
structurally too weak to be left standing on its own feet.
Cambodia desperately needs an end to war and must speed up the
process of economic development to ensure sustainable
democratization. Punishment is not the best strategy because it
will only create fear, distrust, anger and rebellion. Distrust
and betrayal have long been chronic diseases in the Cambodian
body politic.

If moral issues are of great importance, then peace means more
lives will be saved, more time and effort will be devoted to
promoting economic development and improving the standard of
living.

Now is the time for peace, not war. An ancient proverb says:
"Hatred stirs up strife, but love covers all transgressions".

Dr. Sorpong Peou is a Fellow at the Institute of Southeast
Asian Studies, Singapore.