Calm before the storm?

Calm before the storm?

An eerie calm prevails as the countdown to the annual meeting
of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) begins. It seems that
just about every party is going out of its way to ensure a
successful meeting of the country's highest state institution,
which opens on Aug. 7. The agenda seems to merit the efforts:
This is a gathering where President Abdurrahman Wahid will
present a progress report of his first year in office.

Although everyone may have a different idea of what "success"
means, the conventional wisdom is that success means nothing less
than a smooth and peaceful gathering.

That being the consensus, the police and the military are
going all out to ensure that there will not be any disruptions as
the 700 MPR members gather to listen and debate the President's
report. They have also appealed to students and non-governmental
organizations to stay away from the MPR building.

The major political parties are making their contribution to
the meeting's success by deferring some outstanding disputes with
the President. The interpellation motion by the House of
Representatives against the President, and its inquiries into the
Bulog-gate and Brunei-gate scandals, all of which have
contributed to the escalating political tension in the past
month, have been put aside until after the MPR meeting.

The President, for his part, has refrained from making
controversial statements which have characterized his brief
presidency. In Irian Jaya, where an independent aspiration is
brewing, the President has let the local populace fly the Free
Papua Organization flag, but once the MPR meeting is over, he
will allow the military to clamp down on the separatist movement.

The stage, therefore, seems set for a smooth and peaceful MPR
gathering. Everyone is playing his or her part in defusing the
political tension. The much talked about showdown between the
legislative and executive branches seems to have been averted.

If all this looks familiar, that is because the notion of what
a successful gathering means has hardly changed from the days of
the Soeharto era. Success is still measured in terms of
appearances rather than substance. Many people seem to have
missed the point that the MPR meeting is actually a forum for the
nation's political leaders to debate and fight out their
differences in a democratic and civilized way. If it means a
political showdown, so be it. As long as everybody plays by the
book, there is no reason to fear that a showdown between the
President and the legislature will plunge the country into chaos.

The endless fighting among the political elite has been
responsible for keeping Indonesia unstable over these last 10
months. Most people in this country hope that these leaders will
resolve their differences at the MPR once and for all next month
so that they can get back to their normal lives afterward.

Many people would probably be hard-pressed to remember what a
normal life is, but everyone, including local and foreign
investors, are seriously hoping that some semblance of normalcy
will be restored after the MPR meeting.

By deferring pending disputes, however, the political elite is
delaying an inevitable storm. Instead of getting their normal
lives back, people can be sure that the political elite will
renew their fighting as soon as the MPR meeting is over, plunging
the nation into another endless period of uncertainty.

There is still one last hope that this will not be the case.

A meeting of the nation's four influential, if not powerful,
political leaders in Yogyakarta on Tuesday could provide an
impetus for them to show for once that they are united in their
endeavor to restore political stability and to allow the country
to get back on its feet again. The meeting, initiated by
Yogyakarta ruler Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, will be attended by
President Abdurrahman, Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri,
Assembly Speaker Amien Rais and House Speaker Akbar Tandjung.

Given their public stature and large amount of supporters
among the populace, it is in the hands of these leaders that the
fate of this nation lies. It will require great statesmanship
from these leaders to put aside their own political interests and
ambitions for once and to work together for the common good of
this country, not just before the MPR meeting, but for as long as
is needed. Do they have what it takes? We can only pray.