Calm before the storm?

An eerie calm prevails as the countdown to the annual meeting of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) begins. It seems that just about every party is going out of its way to ensure a successful meeting of the country's highest state institution, which opens on Aug. 7. The agenda seems to merit the efforts: This is a gathering where President Abdurrahman Wahid will present a progress report of his first year in office.

Although everyone may have a different idea of what "success" means, the conventional wisdom is that success means nothing less than a smooth and peaceful gathering.

That being the consensus, the police and the military are going all out to ensure that there will not be any disruptions as the 700 MPR members gather to listen and debate the President's report. They have also appealed to students and non-governmental organizations to stay away from the MPR building.

The major political parties are making their contribution to the meeting's success by deferring some outstanding disputes with the President. The interpellation motion by the House of Representatives against the President, and its inquiries into the Bulog-gate and Brunei-gate scandals, all of which have contributed to the escalating political tension in the past month, have been put aside until after the MPR meeting.

The President, for his part, has refrained from making controversial statements which have characterized his brief presidency. In Irian Jaya, where an independent aspiration is brewing, the President has let the local populace fly the Free Papua Organization flag, but once the MPR meeting is over, he will allow the military to clamp down on the separatist movement.

The stage, therefore, seems set for a smooth and peaceful MPR gathering. Everyone is playing his or her part in defusing the political tension. The much talked about showdown between the legislative and executive branches seems to have been averted.

If all this looks familiar, that is because the notion of what a successful gathering means has hardly changed from the days of the Soeharto era. Success is still measured in terms of appearances rather than substance. Many people seem to have missed the point that the MPR meeting is actually a forum for the nation's political leaders to debate and fight out their differences in a democratic and civilized way. If it means a political showdown, so be it. As long as everybody plays by the book, there is no reason to fear that a showdown between the President and the legislature will plunge the country into chaos.

The endless fighting among the political elite has been responsible for keeping Indonesia unstable over these last 10 months. Most people in this country hope that these leaders will resolve their differences at the MPR once and for all next month so that they can get back to their normal lives afterward.

Many people would probably be hard-pressed to remember what a normal life is, but everyone, including local and foreign investors, are seriously hoping that some semblance of normalcy will be restored after the MPR meeting.

By deferring pending disputes, however, the political elite is delaying an inevitable storm. Instead of getting their normal lives back, people can be sure that the political elite will renew their fighting as soon as the MPR meeting is over, plunging the nation into another endless period of uncertainty.

There is still one last hope that this will not be the case.

A meeting of the nation's four influential, if not powerful, political leaders in Yogyakarta on Tuesday could provide an impetus for them to show for once that they are united in their endeavor to restore political stability and to allow the country to get back on its feet again. The meeting, initiated by Yogyakarta ruler Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, will be attended by President Abdurrahman, Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri, Assembly Speaker Amien Rais and House Speaker Akbar Tandjung.

Given their public stature and large amount of supporters among the populace, it is in the hands of these leaders that the fate of this nation lies. It will require great statesmanship from these leaders to put aside their own political interests and ambitions for once and to work together for the common good of this country, not just before the MPR meeting, but for as long as is needed. Do they have what it takes? We can only pray.