Calculating Fuel Prices for 1 August 2026: Will They Rise or Fall?

Non-subsidised fuel (BBM) prices have the potential to either decrease or remain unchanged as of 1 August 2026. This projection aligns with the average decline in global crude oil prices, even though the Rupiah exchange rate has come under renewed pressure from the US Dollar. These two factors are the primary determinants for the direction of non-subsidised fuel price adjustments domestically.

According to Refinitiv data, the average price of Brent crude in July 2026 stood at US$83.87 per barrel, a slight decrease of 0.67% compared to the June 2026 average of US$84.43 per barrel. Meanwhile, the average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was at US$78.65 per barrel in July, down 3.56% from the June average of US$81.55 per barrel.

Global oil price movements throughout July 2026 were quite volatile. At the start of July, prices remained low as markets began to shed the risk premium of the US-Iran war. The easing of tensions in the Middle East and the reopening of shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz reduced concerns regarding oil supply disruptions from the Gulf region. However, oil prices rose again in the second half of July as markets closely monitored supply risks following persistent tensions in the region. Brent briefly breached the US$100.69 per barrel level on 25 July 2026, with WTI also rising to US$92.19 per barrel on the same day. Despite this late-month surge, the monthly average still showed a decline due to the significantly lower prices seen at the beginning of the month.

Concurrently, the Rupiah remained under pressure throughout July. According to Refinitiv, the Rupiah weakened by 0.64% from the start of the month to Friday (31 July 2026), reaching a position of Rp17,990/US.Onamonthlyaveragebasis, theRupiahalsoshowedpressure, averagingRp17, 986.95/US in July, a 0.59% depreciation compared to the June average of Rp17,880.68/US$.

Regarding the August 2026 fuel prices, the government determines fuel prices based on a specific formula. The two main variables used are the average global oil price and the Rupiah exchange rate, given the high demand for imported oil. Based on the Decree of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Number 19 K/10/MEM/2019, the formula uses the average publication price of the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) in USD/barrel. The period used for determining the current month’s price ranges from the 25th of two months prior to the 24th of the previous month.

During this reference period, the average Brent price was US$81.02 per barrel, an 8.66% decrease compared to the previous reference period (25 May to 24 June 2026) of US$88.70 per barrel. A decrease was also observed in WTI, which averaged US$76.29 per barrel, down 10.85% from the previous period’s US$85.58 per barrel. This decline in average oil prices provides room for lower domestic oil import costs.

However, the average Rupiah from 25 June to 24 July 2026 was at Rp17,957.64/US, weakeningby0.55. This condition means that while there is room for non-subsidised fuel prices to drop, the margin is not entirely wide. The decline in oil prices provides downward momentum, while the weakening Rupiah limits the extent of the reduction.

Therefore, non-subsidised fuel prices have the potential to decrease on 1 August 2026, though the possibility of prices being held steady remains open. The chance of prices being maintained arises from two considerations: first, the Rupiah remains under pressure and has breached the Rp18,000/US$ level; second, oil prices rose sharply at the end of July, even if the average for the reference period is down. Additionally, the government and business entities may consider domestic price stability, especially since non-subsidised fuel prices underwent several adjustments in June 2026.

Notably, Pertamina previously adjusted non-subsidised fuel prices in early July 2026. As of 1 July 2026, adjustments primarily affected Pertamax Turbo and non-subsidised diesel. In Jakarta, Pertamax Turbo RON 98 dropped to Rp19,300 per litre from Rp20,750 per litre. Non-subsidised diesel also saw decreases, with Dexlite falling to Rp19,700 per litre from Rp23,000, and Pertamina Dex dropping to Rp21,150 per litre from Rp24,800. Meanwhile, Pertamax RON 92 remained unchanged at Rp16,250 per litre, and Pertamax Green 95 remained at Rp17,000 per litre. Subsidised fuel prices also remained unchanged, with Pertalite at Rp10,000 per litre and subsidised Solar at Rp6,800 per litre.