BRIN warns of ecological amplification and post-disaster outbreak risks
A researcher from the Public Health and Nutrition Research Centre at the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Ristiyanto, has warned that natural disasters can trigger a phenomenon of ecological amplification that carries a high risk of causing vector-borne disease outbreaks in communities.
Speaking during an online discussion on post-disaster infectious diseases held in Jakarta on Thursday, Ristiyanto explained that nature does not immediately produce outbreaks, but rather creates environmental conditions that are highly ideal for disease-carrying vectors and reservoirs to breed rapidly.
“So there is a sequence or chain that we can see simply. A disaster occurs, the environment changes, the population or distribution of vectors and reservoirs changes, contact with humans increases, and then the risk of disease also increases,” he said.
Ristiyanto cited examples such as tsunamis or floods, which often leave behind pools of fresh or brackish water, while droughts force people to store water in unhygienic conditions. These new environmental conditions then radically alter the habitats of mosquitoes and rats.
According to him, if the damaged environmental conditions are not addressed promptly, a process of risk amplification will occur, known medically as ecological amplification.
“So, the longer it goes on, the more the environment will strengthen the development of diseases carried by vectors and reservoirs themselves,” he said.
Ristiyanto assessed that extreme ecological changes will trigger the emergence of diseases that were previously absent or uncommon in an area, ranging from dengue haemorrhagic fever and malaria to the threat of leptospirosis and salmonellosis.
He therefore stressed the need for speed in reading signals of environmental change before basic public service facilities become paralysed in severely affected areas.
“So what we monitor is not only the number of disease sufferers here, but ecological changes can serve as a signal before the increase in cases becomes visible,” Ristiyanto said.