BRIN Study: West Java Records Highest Acute Respiratory Infection Cases in Indonesia; High-Risk Areas Identified

West Java province recorded the highest number of Acute Respiratory Infections (ARIs) in Indonesia in 2023. In response, the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) conducted a specific study to map how this respiratory disease spreads across space and time.

Using the BRIN Data Science and Information Research Centre (PRSDI), the research employed a spatio-temporal analytical approach, simultaneously examining spatial variations and temporal changes to track disease movement more precisely.

The risk mapping by researchers revealed that ARI threats in West Java are not evenly distributed but peak in specific areas during particular months.

The study confirmed environmental factors play a significant role in public lung health. Factors such as temperature, humidity, rainfall, solar radiation, and air pollutant levels were found to influence the spread of ARIs. Specifically, chemical pollutants like sulphur dioxide (SO2) and surface ozone (O3) showed a significant positive correlation, meaning higher concentrations of these pollutants led to increased ARI cases. Conversely, lower temperatures were associated with higher incidence rates.

“Findings underscore the critical role of air quality and climatic conditions in rising ARI risks in West Java,” stated Irfan.

To ensure accuracy, the research integrated large datasets. The team processed 2023 ARI cases from BPJS Health, filtered using ICD-10 codes (J00–J06), combined with environmental and air quality data monitored via NASA GES DISC satellites. Statistical Bayesian modelling using Negative Binomial distribution and Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) was applied. Four mathematical configurations (BYM1–RW1, BYM1–RW2, BYM2–RW1, and BYM2–RW2) were tested to find the most accurate model across West Java’s 27 regencies and cities. The BYM2–RW2 configuration emerged as the optimal model with the highest prediction accuracy.

The collaborative work was published and presented at the prestigious International Conference on Computer, Control, Informatics and its Applications held in Jakarta in 2025. The model is expected to help local governments implement timely preventive health policies before high-risk months for ARIs.