BRIN Researcher Predicts Eid al-Fitr 1447 AH Will Fall on 21 March

A researcher from the Centre for Space Research of the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Thomas Djamaluddin, has predicted that Eid al-Fitr 1447 Hijri potentially falls on 21 March 2026. This prediction is based on astronomical calculations relating to the position of the hilal (crescent moon).

Thomas explained that astronomically, at sunset on Thursday (19 March) in Southeast Asia, the position of the hilal does not meet the new MABIMS criteria (Ministers of Religion of Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore). This is evident in the calculation map, which still crosses the Central Asia region.

“According to astronomical facts, at sunset on 19 March 2026 in Southeast Asia, the hilal does not meet the new MABIMS criteria, as shown in the yellow curve crossing Central Asia,” Thomas told journalists on Tuesday (10 March 2026).

For reference, the MABIMS criteria since 2021/2022 stipulate that the first day of the Islamic month is determined if the hilal elevation is at least 3 degrees and the elongation is 6.4 degrees.

With these conditions, he said, 1 Shawwal 1447 AH is estimated to fall on 21 March 2026. However, he noted that the final decision on Eid al-Fitr will still await the decision of the Islamic lunar court (sidang isbat).

“Therefore, 1 Shawwal 1447 Hijri falls on 21 March 2026, pending the decision of the Islamic lunar court,” he added.

However, Thomas explained that there is a possibility of a different date if using alternative criteria. Based on the Global Single Islamic Calendar (KHGT) criteria, the moon’s position already meets the requirements.

“Whereas according to KHGT criteria (the purple curve), the position of the moon has met the criteria and the ijtima’ (conjunction) occurred before dawn in New Zealand (as noted on this map),” he stated.

“Therefore, according to KHGT criteria, 1 Shawwal 1447 Hijri falls on 20 March 2026,” he concluded.