BRIN Professor: Super El Niño Has Formed, Temperatures Rising 0.1°C Weekly

Professor Erma Yulihastin, a researcher at the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), has stated that a Super El Niño has officially formed and its intensity is expected to increase by 0.1 degrees Celsius every week. The confirmation was made via her personal X account on Sunday (2/9/2026), noting that the daily El Niño relative index had surpassed 2 degrees Celsius on 31 July 2026. ‘It is now official that the Super El Niño formed on 31 July 2026. Thus, there is no longer any need for debate regarding the chance of its formation or whatever name is attached to the Super El Niño. The increase is 0.1 degrees Celsius every week,’ she wrote. The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) aligned with this assessment, stating that Indonesia is entering a strong El Niño phase. The agency urged the public and the government to remain vigilant against the dangers of drought and forest and land fires. According to BMKG’s official website, the 10-day Niño 3.4 index reached +2.26 and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) stood at -28.2, indicating a strong El Niño that is expected to continue intensifying. This global climate development is expected to prolong dry weather in Indonesia, as the strong El Niño phenomenon can suppress cloud formation and reduce rainfall across various regions. BMKG estimates that 91.43 percent of Indonesia’s territory will experience low category rainfall during the first ten days of August 2026, while the remaining 8.57 percent is expected to see medium category rainfall. No regions are forecast to experience high or very high category rainfall, although the potential for rain and strong winds remains.