BRI: MSME business prospects for Q3 remain positive
Jakarta (ANTARA) - PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk, or BRI, has noted that the business prospects for MSMEs in the third quarter of 2026 continue to show a positive direction, as reflected in the Expectation Index from recent survey results.
The business sentiment Expectation Index for MSMEs in Q3 2026 was recorded at 120.2. An index level significantly above 100 indicates strong optimism regarding economic prospects, business sectors, and future business development.
BRI President Director Hery Gunardi, in a statement in Jakarta on Thursday, explained that MSME business prospects during this period are expected to remain in an expansionary phase, albeit more moderately. This is primarily supported by an increase in government and private projects, which are expected to provide a spillover effect to other sectors and the broader economy.
“On the other asides, the weakening of purchasing power and El Niño are risk factors that need to be closely monitored, particularly for the agricultural sector,” said Hery.
BRI noted that business activities across all sectors are expected to remain in an expansionary phase, though at a more moderate pace. The mining and construction sectors are expected to act as pillars as more government and private projects commence.
According to the survey results, business sentiment remains above 100 in most sectors, with construction recording an increase of 7.4 points to 110.8 and mining rising by 1.6 points to 108.3.
Additionally, BRI noted that optimism regarding business prospects is also reflected in MSME investment activities, which continue to grow with an index above 100. This demonstrates that despite the moderation in business activity, MSME players maintain confidence in economic prospects and business sustainability.
He revealed that for Q2 2026, the MSME Business Index was recorded at 102.1, placing it in an expansionary phase. Hery stated that the stability of MSME business activities in Q2 2026 was supported by several factors.
These factors include a steadily growing economy, large-scale harvests of food crops, favourable agricultural product prices, the commencement of government and private projects, conducive weather conditions, and the continued aggressive distribution of social assistance.
However, the expansion rate experienced a slowdown compared to Q1 2026. This condition was influenced by factors such as the normalisation of demand following major holidays and religious events (HBKN), weakened public purchasing power, rising input prices and operational costs, limited business capital, and increasingly intense business competition.
BRI noted that these developments are in line with the moderation of economic growth in Q2 2026. Sectorally, according to the survey, the majority of MSME sectors still recorded an index above 100 in Q2 2026.
The agricultural, construction, and mining sectors recorded strengthening, driven by the momentum of large-scale harvests, good selling prices for agricultural products, and the rollout of government and private projects supported by favourable weather.
Meanwhile, the performance of other sectors showed more moderate development. The manufacturing industry and other services remain in an expansionary phase, despite experiencing a slowdown.
BRI noted that this condition was primarily influenced by the normalisation of demand post-HBKN, weakened purchasing power, rising input and operational costs, and heightened business competition.
Furthermore, the survey results also recorded the MSME Confidence Index towards the Government (IKP) for Q2 2026 at 107.4, which remains above 100. The highest rating was given to the aspect of providing security and peace, with an index of 130.4, followed by the provision and maintenance of infrastructure at 116.5.