Breaking: Rupiah Hits Rp18,000 per US Dollar This Morning
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The rupiah came under renewed pressure in trading on the final day of the week, opening weaker against the US dollar on Friday (16 October 2026).
Refinitiv data showed the rupiah opened down 0.33% at Rp17,980 per US dollar on Friday. Just two minutes later, at 9.02 am WIB, losses deepened to 0.45%, taking it to Rp18,000 per US dollar.
The move extended Thursday’s decline (15 October 2026), when the rupiah closed down 0.14% at Rp17,920 per US dollar, after briefly sliding to Rp17,957.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was up 0.03% at 102.081 at 9.00 am WIB.
The slight rise in the dollar index further limited the rupiah’s scope to strengthen. Although the DXY has retreated from its highest level in 18 months, it remains above 102.
The US dollar continues to draw support from relatively strong economic data. US producer prices recorded their largest increase in four and a half years in September, while retail sales grew more than expected.
However, cautious comments from several Federal Reserve officials have lowered expectations of an interest-rate rise in October. According to CME FedWatch, markets now see a 73% probability that the Fed will hold rates at its 27–28 October meeting.
Market participants are next awaiting remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at today’s annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank in Bangkok. His comments will be scrutinised for clues about the direction of US monetary policy.
Domestically, market sentiment has also been affected by MSCI’s plan to reclassify Indonesia’s stock market from emerging-market to standalone-market status.
The proposal remains under consultation and is not yet final. MSCI is inviting feedback from market participants until 30 April 2027, with a final decision to be announced no later than 30 June 2027.
“MSCI will announce its final decision at the end of June 2027 and may provide interim updates on market participants’ responses during the consultation period,” MSCI said in its announcement, as quoted on Friday (16 October 2026).
MSCI considers Indonesia’s emerging-market classification no longer consistent with current market conditions. Its assessment is based on concerns about investability, transparency of share-ownership structures, alleged coordinated trading practices, and the lack of apparent enforcement action with a meaningful impact.
During the consultation, MSCI will also continue to freeze several index changes for Indonesian shares. It will not increase the Foreign Inclusion Factor (FIF) or Number of Shares (NOS), add new shares to the MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index, or promote shares to a higher index segment.
The news could make foreign investors more cautious about domestic assets. If it prompts foreign outflows from the stock market, demand for US dollars could rise, adding to pressure on the rupiah.