Breaking: Jakarta Composite Index Slumps More Than 1%
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia — The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) traded in negative territory in the first session on Thursday (15 October 2026). At 09:20 WIB, the index stood at 5,881.78, down 61.24 points, or 1.03%.
Pressure on the index was evident from the start of the session. The IHSG opened at 5,917.13, below the previous day’s close, and continued to fall, touching an intraday low of 5,880.92. Its high for the day was only 5,917.70, barely above the opening level.
The IHSG staged a limited recovery, trading between 5,895 and 5,905, but the rebound did not last.
Trading volume was 55.42 million lots, with transactions worth Rp1,292.65 billion.
Indonesia’s financial markets are expected to remain under pressure today. Rising US inflation, a persistently strong dollar and ongoing wars could weigh on the IHSG and the rupiah.
Several events and economic indicators are also in focus, including a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the IMF-World Bank meeting in Bangkok, Thailand.
Here are some of the day’s market factors:
- War developments: Houthis threaten to attack Saudi airports and oil facilities
Yemen’s Houthi group has threatened to continue attacks on Saudi airports and oil facilities. The threat came a day after an attack reportedly damaged the complex of oil giant Saudi Aramco in Dhahran.
The Houthis called the facilities legitimate targets and said the attacks were retaliation for Saudi strikes in Yemen. The Saudi-led coalition said it had intercepted a ballistic missile heading towards Riyadh on Wednesday.
The escalation threatens Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ambitions to diversify Saudi Arabia’s economy and reduce its reliance on oil. In Yemen, intensifying fighting is also worsening the humanitarian crisis and obstructing aid deliveries.
- US inflation heats up as the dollar surges
The US released its September inflation data on Wednesday.
US inflation rose to 3.7% year on year in September 2026, up from 3.4% in each of the previous two months. The figure exceeded market expectations of 3.6%, driven by a surge in energy prices.
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), petrol prices jumped 34.2% year on year, while heating oil prices surged 74.2%. On a month-on-month basis, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.6%, its biggest increase since April 2026. Petrol prices climbed 9.1%, accounting for more than half of the monthly CPI increase.
Core CPI also showed pressure, rising to 2.6% year on year from 2.4% in August. Month on month, core inflation increased by 0.3%, above the 0.2% expected.
Following the higher inflation reading, the dollar index surged, reaching 102.555 on Wednesday. It remains near its highest level since April 2025, around 18 months ago.
The rise in the dollar index could weaken the rupiah, as it may prompt outflows from emerging markets.
- China’s trade surplus reaches US$133 billion as exports leap 36%
China released September data on consumer and producer inflation and its trade balance on Wednesday. Its trade surplus surged to US$133.53 billion in September 2026, up sharply from US$88.72 billion in the same period last year. The figure exceeded market expectations of US$118.1 billion and was the second-largest surplus on record.
According to China’s General Administration of Customs, exports jumped 36.3% year on year to US$447.18 billion.
Car exports also rose sharply. Shipments to the United States increased 39.6%, while exports to the European Union grew 25.3% and those to ASEAN countries surged 52.3%.
China’s imports also leapt 31% year on year to a record US$313.66 billion, exceeding the market forecast of 24.5%.
China’s cumulative trade surplus reached US$938.11 billion in January-September 2026. This puts it on course to exceed last year’s record annual surplus of US$1.2 trillion.
The improvement in China’s trade balance, particularly the increase in imports, is positive news for Indonesia. China is Indonesia’s main trading partner, and higher imports are expected to boost demand for Indonesian goods.
- Inflation in China
China’s inflation rose to 0.9% year on year in September 2026, from 0.8% in August. The increase was driven by transport costs and energy prices, although it remained below the market expectation of 1%.
China’s Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% month on month in September 2026. Since 1996, monthly inflation in China has averaged 0.14%, with a record high of 2.6% in February 2008 and a low of minus 1.8% in June 1998.
Meanwhile, producer inflation, measured by the Producer Price Index (PPI), surged to 5%, its highest level since June 2022, from 3.8% in August. Higher fuel prices and production costs are driving price pressures in the industrial sector.
- Fed chair and IMF discussion
The IMF-World Bank meeting in Bangkok, Thailand, has an important event on Thursday (15 October 2026): a fireside chat between IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.
The discussion, scheduled for 10:30 WIB, could offer clues about the global economic outlook, inflationary pressures, the direction of US interest rates and global debt risks.
Warsh’s comments are being closely watched because they could influence expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy, the US dollar, US Treasury yields and gold prices. For Indonesia, signals of tighter Fed policy could put pressure on the rupiah and trigger capital outflows from emerging markets, while a more dovish signal could support risk assets.
- US producer inflation
The US is due to release its September 2026 Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday (15 October 2026). In August 2026, producer inflation rose 0.4% month on month, its largest increase in three months, driven by higher goods prices, including diesel.
Year on year, producer inflation increased to 5.4% in August 2026 from 4.8% in July, mainly due to higher transport costs.