Brace for Impact: Rupiah Predicted to Hit Rp 19,000 by June 2026

Currency and commodity analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi predicts that the Rupiah will continue its weakening trend through June 2026, with the potential to breach the Rp 19,000 level per US Dollar.

According to Bloomberg, the Rupiah opened 37 points lower at Rp 18,003 per US Dollar and continued to correct to Rp 18,051 per US Dollar by 14:43 WIB. “The Rupiah is currently above Rp 18,000. In June, it is possible that the Rupiah will reach Rp 19,000 per US Dollar,” Ibrahim stated to reporters on Thursday (4/6/2026).

The current depreciation of the Rupiah is notable as it occurs despite a weakening US Dollar index and a decline in global crude oil prices. Ibrahim explained that the predicted decline to an all-time low is influenced by both external and internal factors.

Externally, escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and the US, continue to intensify despite sporadic skirmishes. Furthermore, Israel’s expansion into Southern Lebanon has heightened regional tensions, increasing the likelihood of a confrontation involving Iran.

These Middle Eastern tensions are predicted to disrupt global crude oil supply chains, given that the Strait of Hormuz accounts for approximately 20 per cent of the world’s WTI and Brent crude oil supply. Such disruptions could drive up global oil prices, subsequently increasing transportation and logistics costs, which would lead to higher commodity prices and inflation.

“High inflation will likely cause global central banks to maintain or even increase interest rates. The US Federal Reserve is also likely to implement one interest rate hike within 2026,” Ibrahim explained.