BPS warns that rising bird's eye chilli prices could trigger year-end inflation
Jakarta (ANTARA) - The Indonesian Central Statistics Agency (BPS) has warned that the rising price of bird’s eye chillies must be monitored closely, as it has the potential to drive inflation towards the end of 2026.
Ateng Hartono, the BPS Deputy for Distribution and Services, stated that the price of bird’s eye chillies experienced a substantial increase during the first week of October 202lag, reaching 10.21 per cent.
“Bird’s eye chillies rose quite significantly in the first week of October, with an increase of up to 10.21 per cent,” Ateng said in Jakarta on Monday.
According to Ateng, this price hike has widened the gap between current prices and the upper limit of the Maximum Retail Price (HAP). This situation requires attention as the upward price trend could persist until the end of the year.
The national average price for bird’s eye chillies reached Rp86,846 per kilogram in early October 2026, compared to Rp78,802 per kilogram in the previous month. Meanwhile, the HAP for bird’s eye chillies is set at Rp57,000 per kilogram.
Ateng noted that if the price increase of bird’s eye chillies is not immediately controlled, prices in December 2026 could deviate significantly from the position held in December 2025.
“If bird’s eye chilli prices continue to rise, the year-on-year comparison for the end of December could be much higher than December 2025, which poses a risk of driving annual inflation,” he explained.
Ateng added that a similar situation should be monitored regarding red chillies. He noted that the price increases of both commodities need to be managed to prevent greater pressure on year-end inflation.
The national average price for red chillies reached Rp63,913 per kilogram in early October 2026, up from Rp57,383 per kilogram the previous month. The HAP for red chillies is set at Rp55,000 per kilogram.
BPS recorded that the price increase for bird’s eye chillies in the first week of October occurred across 259 regencies/cities, while red chillies saw increases in 292 regencies/cities.
Ateng emphasised that controlling the prices of both commodities is crucial heading into the end of the year. If prices in December 2026 are significantly higher than in December 2025, it could intensify annual inflationary pressures.
“If not monitored, the condition in December 2026 will be far removed from December 2025, meaning annual inflation could be pushed upwards due to red chillies and, as I mentioned, bird’s eye chillies,” said Ateng.