BPS to Announce July 2026 Inflation Data, Bank Mandiri Projects 3.06% YoY

JAKARTA – Bank Mandiri’s chief economist, Andry Asmoro, estimates that Indonesia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) will record inflation of 0.03 percent month-on-month (mtm) in July 2026, slowing from 0.44 percent (mtm) in June 2026.

“We predict low domestic inflation in July,” Andry said in Jakarta on Sunday (2/8/2026).

On an annual basis, inflation is projected at 3.06 percent (year-on-year/yoy) in July.

He explained that falling prices of volatile food and administered prices are expected to offset an increase in core inflation in July.

The volatile food group is expected to record deflation of 1.12 percent (mtm), reversing from the 0.14 percent (mtm) inflation recorded in June 2026.

The decline in food prices is mainly influenced by falling prices of red chillies and shallots following the peak harvest period.

Meanwhile, the administered prices group is projected to see inflation of 0.10 percent (mtm), lower than the 1.41 percent (mtm) recorded in the previous month.

The slowdown comes as price pressures normalise following the adjustment of non-subsidised fuel prices in June 2026.

On the other hand, core inflation is expected to rise to 0.29 percent (mtm) from 0.23 percent (mtm) in June 2026. The increase is mainly driven by seasonal education spending at the start of the new academic year.

School fee payments are estimated to contribute around 0.06 percentage points to overall monthly inflation.

The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) is scheduled to announce the official July 2026 inflation data on Monday (3/8/2026).

At the same time, BPS will also release a number of other economic indicators, including June 2026 export and import data, the July 2026 Wholesale Price Index, the July 2026 Farmer Exchange Rate, June 2026 tourism developments, June 2026 transport developments in Indonesia, as well as the results of the Area Sampling Framework (KSA) concerning harvested area and rice and maize production up to June 2026.