BPS to Announce July 2026 Inflation Data, Bank Mandiri Projects 3.06% YoY

Bank Mandiri Chief Economist Andry Asmoro projects that Indonesia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July 2026 will experience a deflation of 0.03 percent month-to-month (mtm), slowing from 0.44 percent mtm in June 2026. “We predict low domestic inflation in July,” Andry said in Jakarta on Sunday (2/8/2026). On an annual basis, inflation is projected at 3.06 percent year-on-year (yoy) for July. He explained that the decline in volatile food prices and administered prices is expected to offset the rise in core inflation. The volatile food group is projected to experience a deflation of 1.12 percent mtm, a reversal from the 0.14 percent mtm inflation recorded in June 2026. The drop in food prices is primarily attributed to the falling prices of red chillies and shallots following the peak harvest period. Meanwhile, administered prices are projected to rise by 0.10 percent mtm, slowing from 1.41 percent mtm in the previous month, as the impact of fuel price adjustments normalises. Core inflation, however, is estimated to increase to 0.29 percent mtm from 0.23 percent mtm in June 2026. This rise is mainly driven by seasonal education-related expenditures, with school fee payments expected to contribute approximately 0.06 percentage points to the overall monthly inflation. The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) is scheduled to announce the official July 2026 inflation data on Monday (3/8/2026). Simultaneously, BPS will release other economic indicators, including June 2026 export and import data, the July 2026 Wholesale Price Index, the July 2026 Farmer Exchange Rate, June 2026 tourism developments, June 2026 transportation developments, and the results of the Area Sample Framework (KSA) regarding harvested area and production of rice and corn up to June 2026.