BPS Reveals Impact of Godzilla El Niño on Inflation and Food Prices

Indonesia’s Central Statistics Agency (BPS) has responded to the intense El Niño phenomenon, popularly known as ‘Godzilla El Niño’, which is currently a hot topic in society amid predictions of a drier dry season. This phenomenon is assessed to potentially affect inflation, especially the volatile food component.

“Regarding the influence of El Niño, seasonal conditions in general do indeed have a significant impact on production. Prolonged dry spells typically affect agricultural sector productivity,” said BPS Director of Price Statistics Sarpono during the Workshop on Utilising Strategic BPS Data at the BPS Central Office in Jakarta on Tuesday (21/4/2026).

Sarpono explained that, in principle, when the production of necessary crops is constrained, the amount of production or stock decreases while demand remains unchanged, leading to a tendency for price increases. Nevertheless, he did not conclude that the Godzilla El Niño phenomenon is certain to disrupt production, ultimately affecting inflation levels.

“Speaking of such theories, there will definitely be an influence. But in terms of the current picture, we certainly cannot know yet. The extent of the influence has not been measured at this time,” he stated.

Furthermore, Sarpono provided advice to the government to anticipate the broad impacts of Godzilla El Niño, particularly its effects on volatile food or the food component in inflation movements.

“When there is an El Niño condition later, this will certainly serve as a warning to the government. Productivity levels, for example, essential needs, especially related to volatile food or food items. Perhaps strategies need to be built. Whether for price stability imports are needed and so on, that is part of the early warning,” he clarified.