BPS predicts rice production up to June 2026 to rise to 19.31 million tonnes

Indonesia’s Central Statistics Agency (BPS) predicts that national rice production for the period from January to June, or the first semester of 2026, will increase to 19.31 million tonnes, a rise of 0.26% compared to the same period in the previous year.

“Rice production from January to June 2026 is estimated to reach 19.31 million tonnes, an increase of 0.05 million tonnes or 0.26% compared to the same period in 2025,” said Deputy for Distribution and Services Statistics at BPS, Ateng Hartono, in Jakarta on Monday.

He explained that this increase aligns with projections for cumulative paddy production from January to June 2026, with paddy output for that period estimated at 33.52 million tonnes of dry milled grain (GKG), up 0.26% from the same period last year.

However, in March 2026, the realised harvested area for paddy is estimated at 1.61 million hectares, down 3.16% from 1.67 million hectares in March 2025.

This decline in harvested area is also expected to pressure paddy production in the same month to 8.75 million tonnes of GKG, a 3.69% decrease from 9.08 million tonnes of GKG in March last year.

Accordingly, rice production in March 2026 is estimated at 5.04 million tonnes, down 3.67% from the same period in the previous year.

Nevertheless, on a cumulative basis, first-quarter performance still shows a positive trend, with the total harvested area for paddy from January to March 2026 reaching 3.11 million hectares, up 9.68% from 2.84 million hectares in the same period last year.

For the April to June 2026 period, BPS estimates the potential harvested area for paddy at 3.16 million hectares, down 7.64% from the same period in the previous year. The potential paddy production for that period is projected at 16.68 million tonnes of GKG, a 8.31% annual decline.

Overall, the harvested area for paddy from January to June 2026 is estimated at 6.27 million hectares, a slight increase of 0.22% from the same period in the previous year.

In addition to paddy, BPS also reported developments in corn production. In March 2026, the harvested area for corn is estimated at 0.25 million hectares, down 14.44% from March 2025.

Corn production of dry shelled corn with 14% moisture content (JPK KA 14%) for that period is recorded at 1.40 million tonnes, a 14.23% annual decline.

For the April to June 2026 period, the potential harvested area for corn is estimated at 0.66 million hectares, up slightly by 0.57% from the same period in the previous year. However, he stated that potential corn production is expected to decrease slightly by 1.17% to 3.77 million tonnes.

On the other hand, BPS noted that the Farmers’ Exchange Rate (NTP) in April 2026 experienced a slight decline of 0.09% to 125.24.

Meanwhile, the producer price of milled rice is recorded at Rp14,585 per kilogram for premium grade and Rp13,298 per kilogram for medium grade.