BPS Inflation at 3.48%, Purbaya: Actually 2.51%
Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa explained that the inflation rate for March 2026 should actually be at 2.51% annually, or lower, compared to data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS).
“We are actually at 2.51% now, so it’s still good,” Purbaya said during a working meeting with Commission XI of the House of Representatives on Monday, 6 April 2026.
Previously, BPS announced that annual inflation in March 2026 reached 3.48%. The inflation rate at the end of the first quarter of this year nearly approached the upper limit of the government’s inflation target.
Differing from BPS’s records, according to Purbaya, inflation in March 2026 was only 2.51%. The state treasurer assessed that the 3.48% inflation result for March 2026 was caused by the Central Statistics Agency calculating the electricity discounts that applied last year. “This inflation figure often causes misconceptions with the 3.48 earlier. It seems as if our economy is overheating,” he stated.
He is confident that inflation is around 2.51%. According to him, this amount is still in good condition and provides room for economic growth to be more expansive without significant price increases.
On 1 April 2026, Deputy for Distribution and Services Statistics at BPS, Ateng Hartono, said there was an increase in the Consumer Price Index from 107.22 in March 2025 to 110.95 in March 2026. Ateng explained that, based on expenditure groups, annual inflation was mainly driven by the housing, water, electricity, and household fuel group, which experienced 7.24% inflation.
“The commodity with the largest contribution to inflation in the housing, water, electricity, and household fuel group is the electricity tariff,” he said during a press conference.
According to Ateng, March 2026 inflation is still influenced by the low-base effect due to electricity tariff discounts given in January-February 2025.
Nevertheless, the effect has started to diminish compared to the previous month, when annual inflation in February was recorded at 4.76%. “If in January and February the influence was quite significant, in March the low-base effect influence is starting to be small,” Ateng said.
He explained that although in March 2025 prepaid electricity tariffs had returned to normal prices, postpaid tariffs were still affected by electricity discounts.
On a monthly basis, BPS recorded March inflation at 0.41%, or an increase in the CPI from 110.50 in February 2026 to 110.95 in March 2026. This figure is lower than the previous year, which was recorded at 1.65%. Meanwhile, calendar year inflation was recorded at 0.94%.
Ateng said the expenditure group contributing the most to monthly inflation was food, beverages, and tobacco with 1.07% inflation, contributing 0.32% to inflation. “The dominant commodities driving inflation in this group are fresh fish, broiler chicken meat, rice, broiler eggs, cayenne peppers, cooking oil, and beef,” he stated.