BPS Forecasts Decline in Indonesian Rice Production This Year; Amran's Response Unexpected

Subang, CNBC Indonesia - The Minister of Agriculture, Amran Sulaiman, has addressed the projections from the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency (BPS), which estimate that rice production in October 2026 will decline compared to the same period last year.

BPS previously estimated that national rice production would reach 31.41 million tonnes throughout January-October 2026, a slight decrease of 0.08% compared to the 31.44 million tonnes recorded during the same period last year. This decline in rice production aligns with the projected weakening of paddy production in the form of dried milled grain (GKG). BPS expects paddy production for January-October 202．6 to reach 54.52 million tonnes of GKG, down 0.08% from the same period in 2025.

Ateng Hartono, Deputy for Distribution and Services Statistics at BPS, explained that rice production is the result of converting paddy production, while paddy production itself is determined by harvest area and productivity. For the January-October 2026 period, the paddy harvest area is expected to reach 10.31 million hectares, an increase of only 0.01% compared to January-October 2025.

Responding to these projections, Amran requested that the magnitude of the decline in paddy production be viewed proportionally. He emphasised that the decrease is very small when compared to total production.